TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will an election be called instead of appointing a Prime Minister?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$95,598
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$81,264

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,598 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x345a…b413backed Yes8c7,801$614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$614.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbe5…18d8backed Yes3c4,919$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.79520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-55.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf70f…d753backed No78c4,472$3,487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$984.981346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-30.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes4c3,544$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.016622.7%15 W · 51 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-58.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c2,771$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.261,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbf8…cb04backed No65c2,176$1,415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$760.68560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid-12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes2c2,100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.64440.7%3 W · 441 L-0.7wins0.00per pick1cpaid-87.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a28…9d4ebacked Yes3c1,814$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.1120%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2478…2e62backed Yes10c1,480$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.323737.8%14 W · 23 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-16.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked No21c1,453$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,142.7130233.8%102 W · 200 L+19.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+27.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ba4…8a89backed Yes47c1,392$659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$658.592634.6%9 W · 17 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-31.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x66d4…ae10backed Yes15c1,290$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.751050%5 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+120.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes9c1,160$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1064766.5%31 W · 445 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x983f…fd5ebacked Yes16c1,107$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.563551.4%18 W · 17 L+4.7wins+0.13per pick38cpaid+87%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5903…f218backed No50c1,094$542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551.754955.1%27 W · 22 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcba5…e036backed Yes3c1,085$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.353256.3%18 W · 14 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+29%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked Yes64c1,065$681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$680.7443243.1%186 W · 246 L+29.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfe72…cb10backed No36c1,024$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$654.386030%18 W · 42 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick32cpaid+22.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes47c1,020$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.853740.5%15 W · 22 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+67.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes8c999.67$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.383525.7%9 W · 26 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick19cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xda34…e9e8backed Yes18c903.67$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb23b…f517backed Yes68c871.64$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59020%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x210c…2edabacked No71c848.44$606 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.365072%36 W · 14 L+6.9wins+0.14per pick58cpaid+26.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes4c828.65$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3417227.9%48 W · 124 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe56b…2a2dbacked No72c761.01$545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.22666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+74.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x13b4…bd21backed No58c737.88$429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+71.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed No34c726.02$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481.7944921.2%95 W · 354 L-21.7wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5676…b103backed Yes54c702.37$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.8120538%78 W · 127 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes51c599.73$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.5244428.8%128 W · 316 L-67.6wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-51.6%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xaae9…d661backed Yes77c591.25$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.92771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick61cpaid+22.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x53f9…e920backed Yes53c561.91$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3003135.5%11 W · 20 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-21.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xab58…b07dbacked No79c554.16$435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.091850%9 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-16.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes3c536.73$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.231,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff8d…2898backed No78c485.86$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.864100%4 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+162.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x16c0…4d20backed Yes64c468.74$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick58cpaid-57.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x55c4…4b34backed Yes65c450.51$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.311421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-30.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes25c444.87$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.0837117.8%66 W · 305 L-18.9wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-32.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa45a…a03ebacked Yes37c432.52$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.97425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61c7…82cebacked Yes10c410$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.182416.7%4 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick25cpaid-47.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a3d…efffbacked No60c392.79$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.29771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick49cpaid+30.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8798…e58cbacked No42c389.87$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.251540%6 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-32.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No55c384.16$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.8457636.3%209 W · 367 L-27.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes4c377.65$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.136883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1b3…501cbacked Yes50c344.92$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.466737.3%25 W · 42 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid-4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a18…fe45backed Yes6c339.88$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf5f…f981backed Yes52c299.93$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.16425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-56.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x91fc…0109backed Yes64c286.34$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.262951.7%15 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd97c…aedbbacked Yes35c285.71$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-15.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf555…b2d5backed Yes8c285$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7190%0 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66ad…9f0fbacked Yes7c269.66$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No32c259.57$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.9532255%177 W · 145 L+14.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed No61c259.36$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.3613343.6%58 W · 75 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe62b…7a20backed Yes6c254.93$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa44a…034abacked No66c248.82$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.212100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+48%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed No71c243.25$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.547625%19 W · 57 L-7.3wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-18.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5a0d…c6bebacked No62c241.92$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.92941.4%12 W · 17 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x31eb…3616backed Yes58c232.5$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.1450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-37.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa224…3769backed Yes8c225.12$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8870%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2230…a66cbacked No17c223.33$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.12948.3%14 W · 15 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+34.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3c3…f78cbacked Yes34c203.45$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-50%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4e2…cbb7backed Yes49c201.91$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa05…4908backed Yes6c200$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick8cpaid+1,077.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7e01…63bebacked Yes48c200$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.54961.2%30 W · 19 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x935d…4303backed Yes58c179.28$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8a2…aff4backed Yes58c173.34$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1470…608abacked No58c172.05$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.05250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5e6…45f8backed Yes11c166.94$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.59944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick27cpaid+43.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd9c…f0c8backed Yes62c160$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.23641.7%15 W · 21 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x99c6…a321backed Yes40c154.37$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4600…78aabacked No67c148.96$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.96540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-30.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ae…056fbacked Yes69c145.55$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7a88…fd7fbacked Yes69c144.93$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick68cpaid+31.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x89a3…70c0backed Yes15c140$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick15cpaid+283.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a7b…c2cbbacked No62c120.54$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.232100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+165.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d2f…24debacked Yes55c120$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid+67.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe77f…b959backed Yes37c119.18$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.8260%0 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x714f…66d5backed Yes49c117$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.6311020.9%23 W · 87 L-6.3wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-32.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x581d…b2e3backed Yes44c115$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.161650%8 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbdfb…c05cbacked No37c113$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.191258.3%7 W · 5 L+3.8wins+0.32per pick27cpaid+123.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xce36…48cabacked No48c109.16$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.76944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick26cpaid-6.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0cd0…0e01backed No36c100$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+37.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94d8…37e6backed Yes51c99.99$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.6wins-0.38per pick52cpaid-74.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x39aa…c6c3backed Yes55c95.09$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7516…d41bbacked No54c94.93$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.242100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+71.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12d4…1682backed Yes17c90.84$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.58250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-30.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes53c90$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.59237%34 W · 58 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc765…ef3bbacked Yes27c87.03$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.24475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77b6…0155backed No45c84.54$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.56450%2 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+103.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa314…5ba7backed No45c84.5$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.499248.9%45 W · 47 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23c2…fe0dbacked Yes74c83.16$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b8c…5996backed Yes26c77.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb9a4…996dbacked Yes53c70$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.11612.5%2 W · 14 L-5.4wins-0.34per pick46cpaid-82.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No41c67.06$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.312345.5%56 W · 67 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd16c…60e9backed No80c65$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7581…d9a1backed Yes48c65$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30bc…ea78backed Yes20c64.71$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.631546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-30.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No55c61.87$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.6836742.5%156 W · 211 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xceef…80b1backed Yes34c60.51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2730%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd66c…97e3backed No53c60$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.44413.6%6 W · 38 L-3.7wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-64.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf448…e370backed No34c60$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.63100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+105.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.