Will Yaël Braun-Pivet be the next Prime Minister of France?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd83b2e78ac7342a823701186f450d1eab1b5fd3aa01bbde3a53b08709480efc9

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 10, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $25,607
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $5,468

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,607 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in World Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	0c	8,850$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.43	1,431	10.1%145 W · 1,286 L	-4.9wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes	1c	1,748$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	135	8.1%11 W · 124 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-28%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86c1…08fdbacked Yes	3c	1,391$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.82	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xce36…48cabacked Yes	2c	778.15$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+1.7wins	+0.19per pick	26cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe5f5…28b7backed Yes	17c	209.11$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.83	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeec5…0e74backed Yes	5c	198.24$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.18	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-65.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdb61…2528backed Yes	21c	118.57$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-47.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfd78…5c5bbacked Yes	17c	117.81$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0d1…8202backed Yes	45c	82.64$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d81…259bbacked Yes	25c	40$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-2.0wins	-0.34per pick	50cpaid	-75.8%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5a0d…c6bebacked No	58c	40$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.8	29	41.4%12 W · 17 L	+1.6wins	+0.06per pick	36cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Yaël Braun-Pivet be the next Prime Minister of France?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event