Will Pierre Moscovici be the next Prime Minister of France?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c278bbda43e5540411fd53fe9077c9b4adec8a2c5ed823687197993bb3f8549

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 10, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $17,312
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $12,217

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,312 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in World Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes	1c	2,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	316	35.1%111 W · 205 L	-11.1wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fd8…01f0backed Yes	2c	1,080$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.48	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	33cpaid	-44.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61c7…82cebacked Yes	13c	979.93$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.73	24	16.7%4 W · 20 L	-2.1wins	-0.09per pick	25cpaid	-47.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeec5…0e74backed Yes	4c	697.79$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.82	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-65.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4db3…cd7bbacked Yes	9c	659.74$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb41a…1935backed Yes	26c	645.54$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.26	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.17per pick	42cpaid	-68.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbf8…cb04backed No	79c	631.02$501 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$129.54	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06e0…7934backed Yes	15c	500$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-1.6wins	-0.21per pick	46cpaid	-55.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	473.35$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.99	1,431	10.1%145 W · 1,286 L	-4.9wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3701…ce16backed No	79c	344.87$272 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.07	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-29%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3814…f0bfbacked No	73c	338.52$248 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90.26	13	69.2%9 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	71cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x2654…c2b2backed Yes	13c	312.59$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.14	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa92…779bbacked Yes	15c	293.25$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x19cb…a867backed Yes	37c	269.38$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.3wins	+0.05per pick	24cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa314…5ba7backed Yes	19c	262.98$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.87	92	48.9%45 W · 47 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdff3…33cfbacked Yes	23c	258.61$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf3e…1da1backed Yes	20c	251.14$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ef6…5fa4backed Yes	7c	250$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.49	18	5.6%1 W · 17 L	-2.5wins	-0.14per pick	20cpaid	-80.4%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes	9c	213.24$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.82	35	25.7%9 W · 26 L	+2.4wins	+0.07per pick	19cpaid	-4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes	10c	212.79$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.4	203	28.6%58 W · 145 L	-11.4wins	-0.06per pick	34cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x420b…965bbacked Yes	24c	209.99$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.35	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-2.3wins	-0.19per pick	44cpaid	-55.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes	7c	203.25$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.98	172	27.9%48 W · 124 L	-5.1wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0249…dbecbacked Yes	20c	198.23$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.16per pick	41cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2417…86b1backed Yes	19c	158.66$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No	80c	136.45$109 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.82	314	43.9%138 W · 176 L	-12.8wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x300d…ab3dbacked Yes	39c	136.01$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.3	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	+0.9wins	+0.07per pick	51cpaid	+29.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3577…4bd5backed Yes	18c	132.41$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.57	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.12per pick	38cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a0d…c6bebacked No	75c	132.12$99 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.75	29	41.4%12 W · 17 L	+1.6wins	+0.06per pick	36cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3fe6…bbb2backed Yes	19c	105.26$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.2wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4b19…1058backed Yes	49c	102.34$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.49per pick	49cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No	74c	100$74 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.2	1,022	28%286 W · 736 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-34.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0dcb…9540backed Yes	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	34cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5676…b103backed Yes	17c	100$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.1	205	38%78 W · 127 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5d1…258cbacked No	66c	87.31$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.09	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.30per pick	70cpaid	+44%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes	18c	81.64$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.31	476	6.5%31 W · 445 L	-8.9wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd04e…77dfbacked Yes	19c	76.78$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.8	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-2.8wins	-0.12per pick	21cpaid	-81.8%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7d81…bf65backed Yes	31c	64.53$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.17per pick	50cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x13f1…50e0backed Yes	20c	61.12$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5982…fd3ebacked Yes	25c	60.02$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.33per pick	33cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x30bc…ea78backed Yes	26c	59.99$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.82	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	-1.0wins	-0.07per pick	53cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f21…b2e6backed Yes	38c	57.32$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.72	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.38per pick	38cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes	38c	52$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.71	261	39.8%104 W · 157 L	+16.3wins	+0.06per pick	34cpaid	+32.5%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No	80c	49.99$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.15	247	36.8%91 W · 156 L	+2.6wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8658…41c6backed Yes	53c	44.08$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.31	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.53per pick	53cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No	66c	37.6$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.67	322	55%177 W · 145 L	+14.3wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	-5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe0b1…2046backed Yes	37c	32.45$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.37per pick	37cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Pierre Moscovici be the next Prime Minister of France?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event