Will Olivier Faure be the next Prime Minister of France?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88afef52910da2570dd88e830a71195086383f1997cc06ca00f1a4030f6e74b4

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 10, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $52,841
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $37,115

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,841 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in World Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe085…5474backed Yes	0c	13,350$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.35	19	5.3%1 W · 18 L	-2.4wins	-0.13per pick	18cpaid	-83.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xee03…6edbbacked Yes	2c	5,075$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.17	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.16per pick	34cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc01…7a9abacked Yes	24c	4,500$1,080 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,080	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8a6…eb5ebacked Yes	4c	2,410$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.9	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.36per pick	14cpaid	+110%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed No	80c	2,213$1,759 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$453.68	26	42.3%11 W · 15 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	5c	1,898$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.56	1,431	10.1%145 W · 1,286 L	-4.9wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x432c…3ce0backed Yes	10c	1,600$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd97c…aedbbacked Yes	18c	1,402$256 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$255.68	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfbf8…cb04backed Yes	23c	1,297$295 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$295.02	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes	4c	911.1$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.53	35	25.7%9 W · 26 L	+2.4wins	+0.07per pick	19cpaid	-4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d89…340cbacked Yes	5c	870.15$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.46	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	-26.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ba4…8a89backed Yes	20c	800$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162.2	26	34.6%9 W · 17 L	-2.4wins	-0.09per pick	44cpaid	-31.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb008…3959backed Yes	17c	587.64$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2cd…ccaabacked Yes	5c	544.64$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.09	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb41a…1935backed Yes	29c	455.72$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.75	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.17per pick	42cpaid	-68.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xce36…48cabacked Yes	9c	433.16$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+1.7wins	+0.19per pick	26cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3829…2078backed Yes	9c	431.37$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.06	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes	5c	417.52$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.46	302	33.8%102 W · 200 L	+19.2wins	+0.06per pick	27cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeec5…0e74backed Yes	8c	411.49$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.73	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-65.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc637…d0f8backed Yes	6c	358.83$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e73…6697backed Yes	15c	302.09$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.15	52	44.2%23 W · 29 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc981…a75dbacked Yes	12c	250$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.2	57	15.8%9 W · 48 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-46.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80f5…8db2backed Yes	41c	242.87$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.41per pick	41cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ef6…5fa4backed Yes	7c	241.57$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.05	18	5.6%1 W · 17 L	-2.5wins	-0.14per pick	20cpaid	-80.4%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5676…b103backed Yes	19c	236.22$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.88	205	38%78 W · 127 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8181…ea9ebacked Yes	16c	183.45$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+1.0wins	+0.25per pick	25cpaid	+241.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7036…5b00backed Yes	20c	176.27$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd4e…110cbacked Yes	9c	169.27$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	20	25%5 W · 15 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	+49.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd04e…77dfbacked Yes	12c	166.94$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-2.8wins	-0.12per pick	21cpaid	-81.8%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No	72c	159.89$115 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.52	322	55%177 W · 145 L	+14.3wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	-5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f36…9d7cbacked Yes	36c	142.23$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.05per pick	28cpaid	+30.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae67…faf1backed No	80c	140$112 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28	12	66.7%8 W · 4 L	+1.3wins	+0.11per pick	56cpaid	+24.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x61c7…82cebacked Yes	9c	115$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.24	24	16.7%4 W · 20 L	-2.1wins	-0.09per pick	25cpaid	-47.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5581…2574backed Yes	10c	104.81$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x53f9…e920backed Yes	38c	101.72$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	31	35.5%11 W · 20 L	-2.5wins	-0.08per pick	44cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No	46c	93.75$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.8	123	45.5%56 W · 67 L	+5.2wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xab51…db25backed Yes	54c	92.76$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.48per pick	48cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa314…5ba7backed Yes	14c	84$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.68	92	48.9%45 W · 47 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17d0…197fbacked Yes	29c	68.97$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4429…03c8backed Yes	28c	54.92$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.59	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2654…c2b2backed No	69c	40$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.4	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0974…2eafbacked Yes	42c	35.71$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	39cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b19…52bdbacked No	77c	27.31$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.31	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	-35%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No	70c	24.54$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.26	172	27.9%48 W · 124 L	-5.1wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed No	76c	15.27$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.68	293	9.2%27 W · 266 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+25.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd883…4fd7backed No	77c	14.99$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.43	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	62cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Olivier Faure be the next Prime Minister of France?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event