TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Trump strikes another drug boat by Oct 15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$33,367
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$35,611

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,367 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf1f0…58dfbacked No11c2,476$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.794942.9%21 W · 28 L+12.8wins+0.26per pick17cpaid+218.5%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x9ed9…f365backed Yes13c1,798$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,569.14425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+96.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes28c1,638$453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,184.3899629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe103…59fdbacked No28c1,546$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.554951%25 W · 24 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x62cf…5826backed No54c1,263$678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$677.581553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes69c1,259$866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.6737844.4%168 W · 210 L+33.3wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+64.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed No11c1,250$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14011121.6%24 W · 87 L+11.4wins+0.10per pick11cpaid+179.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed Yes41c1,235$512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$722.883961.5%24 W · 15 L+6.5wins+0.17per pick45cpaid+68.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4ad2…54bdbacked Yes9c1,117$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,016.743100%3 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+402.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd99f…4400backed Yes45c1,040$466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$574.4366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+25.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed No73c972.67$709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$709.0216144.7%72 W · 89 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0db…56d5backed No75c711.05$533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532.88333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick72cpaid-53.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcbc7…8f89backed Yes31c673.53$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465.495743.9%25 W · 32 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No56c566.88$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.9535519.7%70 W · 285 L-16.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed Yes28c533.54$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.5421634.3%74 W · 142 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No79c499.99$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.5769634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x588c…1bf4backed No74c475.72$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.743129%9 W · 22 L-6.5wins-0.21per pick50cpaid-58.7%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes30c425.24$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.181,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes25c396.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.3912545.6%57 W · 68 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa7c8…bc64backed No51c392.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x919e…d915backed Yes23c374.99$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.313218.8%6 W · 26 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-55.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0509…6e98backed No70c343.05$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.32821.4%6 W · 22 L-4.4wins-0.16per pick37cpaid-63.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf9e2…988ebacked Yes37c328.42$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.48862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.29per pick33cpaid+71.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb902…0899backed Yes31c318.9$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+227.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d9e…716ebacked No69c289.86$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick61cpaid-52%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x410a…e8b8backed Yes50c282$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1412850%14 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked No50c257.8$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.1713138.9%51 W · 80 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82b7…cc32backed No71c237$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.1720%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed No53c235$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.5518745.5%85 W · 102 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d9c…00f6backed No72c230$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.9950%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes42c226.96$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.2256733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xff4a…ffaebacked Yes42c209.99$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.39560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+27.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc561…fa80backed No54c200$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1083959%23 W · 16 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick66cpaid-17.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed No61c200$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12232626.4%86 W · 240 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed Yes27c200$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1468632.6%28 W · 58 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf928…6b7ebacked No71c200$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.35per pick69cpaid-46.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd687…c066backed No50c190$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$952330.4%7 W · 16 L-3.1wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-46.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdce0…2dafbacked No71c175.28$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.81723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-50.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x740e…fff3backed Yes7c172$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.96666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.5wins+0.41per pick26cpaid+313%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1b30…84ccbacked Yes16c170$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+131.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b48…fdcabacked Yes24c164.85$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.85425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb885…4b0dbacked No68c160$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2843…b3d2backed Yes31c139.97$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.9812839.8%51 W · 77 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes14c137.55$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.591,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7fec…c965backed Yes30c133.38$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.153046.7%14 W · 16 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-21.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf18f…294cbacked Yes31c125$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.252832.1%9 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ff7…87a4backed No67c119.66$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802642.3%11 W · 15 L-2.7wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-30.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4b92…42e6backed Yes49c117.31$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.021947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec73…6af3backed Yes67c116.42$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.421060%6 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+21.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc75…b64dbacked No70c114.69$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.711050%5 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x019a…7df0backed No70c111.51$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.95837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-33.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4fc…a861backed Yes37c110$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.73100%3 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+202.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes33c105.48$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.3496319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1e3…4f06backed No56c100.53$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.66520%1 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.39per pick59cpaid-54.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb1a1…dd34backed No51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511546.7%7 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.18per pick65cpaid-31.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaee1…3ceabacked Yes25c100$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75580%4 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.37per pick43cpaid+83.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6d89…340cbacked No54c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542536%9 W · 16 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdb1…276cbacked Yes38c100$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$621546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-21.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffb0…fa37backed Yes44c99.99$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.992065%13 W · 7 L+3.1wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+22.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8147…5039backed Yes12c91.67$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.67450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+143.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes46c89.88$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.9431840.3%128 W · 190 L-9.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-26%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4dea…9e90backed Yes43c80$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.8837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick28cpaid-28.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe860…c3d2backed No71c79.99$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.81010%1 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.23per pick33cpaid-83.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5903…f218backed Yes27c79.7$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.853852.6%20 W · 18 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+19.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8bb0…c328backed No76c78.95$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602055%11 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5eda…d453backed No67c78.82$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.15per pick57cpaid+30.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x210c…2edabacked No74c63.48$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.995474.1%40 W · 14 L+8.4wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+22.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xba9d…9e71backed Yes42c60$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.8366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick34cpaid+37.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x32db…fcdcbacked Yes37c56.49$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.871145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.17per pick28cpaid+6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x76d7…d604backed No67c55.3$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.0530%0 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8151…0792backed Yes58c51$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.28475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick42cpaid+88.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbdd2…0bd8backed Yes48c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No54c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2718445.1%83 W · 101 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeebb…2473backed Yes20c50$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+400%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x23cb…658ebacked Yes46c49.55$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.548749.4%43 W · 44 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f34…6f89backed No64c46$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b93…9fbebacked No76c43.42$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No75c40$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8924035.4%85 W · 155 L-12.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-30.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbe94…6fa5backed Yes56c35.94$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.94475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+55.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe51e…1a85backed No56c35.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x570d…7222backed Yes31c35$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+221.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f0f…c8aebacked Yes47c30$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.9650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+11%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ec8…47d7backed No77c25.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf710…edc9backed No50c25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.57331.5%23 W · 50 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-22%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x245c…2486backed No73c23.45$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.233959%23 W · 16 L+5.0wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+15.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf7c5…bf7abacked Yes51c23$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.271346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce15…cbb7backed No69c23$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8740%0 W · 4 L-2.5wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x296e…e0e1backed No53c20.08$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.64955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7f29…0760backed No79c20$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.82259.1%13 W · 9 L+0.1wins0.00per pick59cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe386…3d99backed No74c14.82$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1117…2922backed No75c14.67$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.