La Liga · resolved market
Will Real Sociedad win on 2025-10-05?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7c35d3259121f544f2b8f1afc83fca2b0d8ed4d7183428c879aed8c13e5d4fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,108
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,842
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,108 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 55c | 30,000$16,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,500 | 172 | 48.8%84 W · 88 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Yes | 45c | 27,457$12,356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,355.54 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f08…ed44backed Yes | 2c | 5,150$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 58c | 2,619$1,512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,106.71 | 274 | 53.6%147 W · 127 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Yes | 45c | 1,949$877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$876.92 | 146 | 47.9%70 W · 76 L | +11.6wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 63c | 1,931$1,215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$716.42 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85f1…a6b5backed Yes | 46c | 1,304$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…ed9dbacked Yes | 37c | 1,254$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 54c | 1,226$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.43 | 157 | 50.3%79 W · 78 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 25c | 765.99$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.5 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0727…ec27backed Yes | 28c | 726.18$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 63c | 557.03$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.9 | 307 | 43.6%134 W · 173 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 46c | 543.48$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 58c | 410.23$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.52 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe724…1938backed Yes | 41c | 318.78$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.7 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Yes | 46c | 300$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Yes | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked No | 55c | 287.32$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.29 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Yes | 46c | 223.09$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.39 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 265 | 45.3%120 W · 145 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23c3…bdf4backed Yes | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Yes | 44c | 207$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.08 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7272…7135backed Yes | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4d…c4bebacked Yes | 47c | 171.34$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked No | 53c | 149.99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Yes | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9539…e9bbbacked Yes | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1947…94bcbacked No | 56c | 130.36$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.36 | 127 | 57.5%73 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Yes | 44c | 113.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.85 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Yes | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x019a…7df0backed Yes | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf99d…f867backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked No | 53c | 91.11$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.82 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb7…04d8backed Yes | 40c | 87.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked No | 54c | 86.41$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.81 | 532 | 42.3%225 W · 307 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cab…e9c4backed Yes | 38c | 79.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed No | 70c | 71.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.47 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 72c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 559 | 41.1%230 W · 329 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x695a…d3d6backed Yes | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 22c | 61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 400 | 33.5%134 W · 266 L | -27.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6be7…8d02backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.25per pick | 31cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…ff29backed Yes | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -74%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bf…dfb9backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc02…958abacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f87…6e8abacked Yes | 45c | 48.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79a6…3aa9backed Yes | 37c | 47.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd32f…ae42backed Yes | 45c | 46.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 54c | 43.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 295 | 45.4%134 W · 161 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x407c…4ba3backed Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf778…2f09backed Yes | 46c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe23…4489backed Yes | 47c | 42.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb5…050bbacked Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05b0…e8fcbacked Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.21per pick | 63cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9057…0fa8backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6adb…fac7backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb02d…208ebacked No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7afb…ff15backed Yes | 47c | 30.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 38cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…4b52backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +22%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Yes | 45c | 29.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x395c…4415backed Yes | 46c | 23.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…eea2backed Yes | 47c | 21.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 102 | 48%49 W · 53 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 177 | 44.1%78 W · 99 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Real Sociedad win on 2025-10-05?this page
- Will Rayo Vallecano win on 2025-10-05?Yes won
- Will Real Sociedad vs. Rayo Vallecano end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.