La Liga · resolved market
Will Real Sociedad vs. Rayo Vallecano end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04a166fbfd8271536a5aad13ed9a72bdd0695b1d11d476cff6910d811f978b6b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,408
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,974
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,408 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 70c | 1,305$911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.07 | 274 | 53.6%147 W · 127 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…9971backed Yes | 30c | 1,110$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 17c | 777$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.2 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 37c | 718$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.31 | 4,753 | 47.1%2,238 W · 2,515 L | -21.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 33c | 700$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 290 | 38.6%112 W · 178 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 72c | 570.74$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.88 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec73…6af3backed Yes | 71c | 550.21$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.16 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 57c | 208.82$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.58 | 3,461 | 43%1,489 W · 1,972 L | +31.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72e1…20c6backed Yes | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 71c | 193.3$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.02 | 157 | 50.3%79 W · 78 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 77c | 172$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.76 | 177 | 44.1%78 W · 99 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1166…a8e1backed Yes | 29c | 168.97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Yes | 10c | 137.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 307 | 43.6%134 W · 173 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9775…8746backed Yes | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 400 | 33.5%134 W · 266 L | -27.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc26d…63f2backed Yes | 21c | 76.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 67c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 141 | 66.7%94 W · 47 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed No | 71c | 72.34$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x407c…4ba3backed Yes | 30c | 65.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x301d…05f2backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebeb…74d4backed Yes | 29c | 48.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2756…395abacked No | 73c | 48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e0…bf01backed Yes | 51c | 45.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 73 | 63%46 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5061…1b03backed No | 70c | 36.8$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9e…7a1bbacked No | 73c | 36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd574…425dbacked Yes | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 370 | 39.2%145 W · 225 L | -14.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 69c | 28.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 295 | 45.4%134 W · 161 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 171 | 55%94 W · 77 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Real Sociedad vs. Rayo Vallecano end in a draw?this page
- Will Rayo Vallecano win on 2025-10-05?Yes won
- Will Real Sociedad win on 2025-10-05?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.