La Liga · resolved market
Will Rayo Vallecano win on 2025-10-05?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e9dadbe6ad0df3990dc6560fb5cee145ad03fe78a2b7cd5b0d1bfbc2e78b7dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,889
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,179
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,889 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Yes | 26c | 4,546$1,182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,363.86 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 73c | 2,444$1,783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,783.05 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked No | 73c | 1,937$1,414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,414.01 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f08…ed44backed No | 28c | 1,529$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.46 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 73c | 928.78$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.18 | 258 | 72.9%188 W · 70 L | +23.2wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 27c | 757.78$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.6 | 269 | 30.5%82 W · 187 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 73c | 755.3$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.05 | 295 | 45.4%134 W · 161 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 27c | 740.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.74 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 26c | 600$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444 | 146 | 21.9%32 W · 114 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 74c | 579.9$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.78 | 157 | 50.3%79 W · 78 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 26c | 323.16$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.34 | 278 | 54.7%152 W · 126 L | +20.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed No | 74c | 300$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Yes | 24c | 269.02$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.77 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d4…962dbacked No | 76c | 263.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 37c | 252$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 400 | 33.5%134 W · 266 L | -27.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 72c | 234.19$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…f37fbacked No | 74c | 142.61$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 89 | 61.8%55 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ab…341bbacked Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -75%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc26d…63f2backed Yes | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.17 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb4…0c34backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Yes | 68c | 98.87$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 307 | 43.6%134 W · 173 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24b8…6a66backed Yes | 20c | 98.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.09 | 82 | 61%50 W · 32 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 26c | 89.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.01 | 169 | 26%44 W · 125 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…8e9abacked Yes | 18c | 80$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.6 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5be5…8d0cbacked Yes | 18c | 77.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.78 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0774…da5dbacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.26per pick | 32cpaid | +88.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 28c | 73.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 290 | 38.6%112 W · 178 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x407c…4ba3backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbe…cd73backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 33c | 70$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.7 | 370 | 39.2%145 W · 225 L | -14.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6be7…8d02backed Yes | 29c | 69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.25per pick | 31cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x98e0…bf01backed No | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 73 | 63%46 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Yes | 26c | 61.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.19 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf778…2f09backed Yes | 24c | 58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.08 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb41c…2f0dbacked No | 80c | 38.75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 74c | 35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 559 | 41.1%230 W · 329 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f7…9ab2backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7231…8e0ebacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 73cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3577…4bd5backed Yes | 57c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f67…55bfbacked Yes | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Rayo Vallecano win on 2025-10-05?this page
- Will Real Sociedad vs. Rayo Vallecano end in a draw?No won
- Will Real Sociedad win on 2025-10-05?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.