Champions League · resolved market
Will Benfica win Group C at the FIFA Club World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x235c1a35c662fc30c68554ca907bcaaf9e882e9645948ea525d9180cd3519822
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,198
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,490
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,198 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf520…0637backed Yes | 23c | 14,312$3,318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,993.71 | 187 | 58.8%110 W · 77 L | +18.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc9…4534backed No | 78c | 12,259$9,509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,508.79 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 22c | 9,023$1,987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,035.07 | 291 | 36.8%107 W · 184 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e77…cb47backed Yes | 23c | 4,800$1,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,690.71 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 3,949$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 187 | 7%13 W · 174 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39a1…af66backed Yes | 17c | 2,081$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,732.99 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked Yes | 7c | 620.69$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.52 | 123 | 54.5%67 W · 56 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd8…7effbacked Yes | 20c | 500$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.95 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba0e…5cebbacked No | 79c | 499.99$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.99 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -75%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd386…1887backed Yes | 22c | 460.8$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.8 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Yes | 24c | 399.11$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.32 | 344 | 49.7%171 W · 173 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 21c | 376.71$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.04 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa147…3fccbacked No | 80c | 375$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 18c | 364.97$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.1 | 306 | 57.5%176 W · 130 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed Yes | 18c | 283.78$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.4 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 75c | 274$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.43 | 389 | 35.2%137 W · 252 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2130…b64dbacked Yes | 22c | 269.4$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.01 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +89.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a14…6d9ebacked Yes | 15c | 256.49$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 12cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked Yes | 8c | 193$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.83 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 35c | 192$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.32 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b60…76d5backed No | 74c | 178$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.04 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 20c | 177.27$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.82 | 257 | 35%90 W · 167 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cc…a23abacked Yes | 19c | 171.88$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.49 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1e…49d9backed Yes | 10c | 138$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.06 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89d2…6031backed Yes | 20c | 132$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +70%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 24c | 116.12$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.16 | 163 | 27%44 W · 119 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019a…7df0backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.24 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 22c | 82$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd02d…17e8backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Yes | 49c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +8.2wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked No | 75c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 119 | 16.8%20 W · 99 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Benfica win Group C at the FIFA Club World Cup?this page
- Will Auckland City win Group C at the FIFA Club World Cup?No won
- Will Bayern Munich win Group C at the FIFA Club World Cup?No won
- Will Boca Juniors win Group C at the FIFA Club World Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.