La Liga · resolved market
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-01-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7892e13841faeb873c21e4e3a8a06366b558ac48775b5dafa60c415f36236698
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $180,905
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $183,614
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $180,905 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Yes | 2c | 42,999$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.86 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 2c | 28,236$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.66 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb853…0d33backed Yes | 15c | 3,235$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 104 | 37.5%39 W · 65 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 11c | 3,003$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.31 | 908 | 43.6%396 W · 512 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d08…763ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,900$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f2…d776backed Yes | 2c | 2,840$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.6 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 14c | 2,506$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.85 | 169 | 26%44 W · 125 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 15c | 2,417$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.55 | 306 | 34.6%106 W · 200 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a22…c3b5backed Yes | 15c | 2,333$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f72…8c5cbacked Yes | 15c | 1,821$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -53%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4064…5f1ebacked Yes | 17c | 1,813$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 15c | 1,532$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.8 | 502 | 43.4%218 W · 284 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 15c | 1,511$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.87 | 791 | 33%261 W · 530 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x478f…f5d9backed Yes | 16c | 1,250$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…edaabacked Yes | 4c | 1,000$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a23…bfddbacked Yes | 15c | 855$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba46…956ebacked Yes | 15c | 747.33$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Yes | 15c | 643.64$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.37 | 102 | 45.1%46 W · 56 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 4c | 628.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 691 | 42.5%294 W · 397 L | -21.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87d5…9790backed Yes | 16c | 625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d14…c06dbacked Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0c…2c92backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 4c | 489.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | -8.0wins | -0.24per pick | 29cpaid | -89.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Yes | 7c | 432.02$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 240 | 47.9%115 W · 125 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Yes | 14c | 370.79$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.91 | 99 | 23.2%23 W · 76 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019a…7df0backed Yes | 5c | 364.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7102…28b4backed Yes | 15c | 355.33$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.3 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 15c | 354.69$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.73 | 532 | 46.1%245 W · 287 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3138…b523backed Yes | 15c | 350$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf035…0924backed Yes | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 76 | 36.8%28 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a10…7843backed Yes | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 162 | 50.6%82 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2588…1cfdbacked Yes | 13c | 309.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49e2…018dbacked Yes | 14c | 278.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…f786backed Yes | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3673…7c89backed Yes | 15c | 233.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46e8…a63dbacked Yes | 5c | 220$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42bf…30f7backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23e6…7bbfbacked Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cff…15d1backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 227 | 40.1%91 W · 136 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 262 | 42.7%112 W · 150 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf22…81b9backed Yes | 11c | 189.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41fb…b6b0backed Yes | 15c | 166.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc097…720cbacked Yes | 11c | 158.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f2b…a44cbacked Yes | 15c | 153.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb65c…dcdfbacked Yes | 16c | 148.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ca…5ed4backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc1…f780backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b8…1417backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 129 | 36.4%47 W · 82 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a05…754abacked Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 120 | 45.8%55 W · 65 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb0f…a7e4backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…4320backed Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 14c | 101.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 41 | 14.6%6 W · 35 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d93…fa80backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0eb…75afbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7437…6e31backed Yes | 13c | 91.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93d1…9daebacked Yes | 15c | 86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bb…d0d6backed Yes | 15c | 76.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.4wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x141f…9e9bbacked Yes | 16c | 68.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e8…df6ebacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf6c…2888backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-01-04?this page
- Will Real Madrid CF vs. Real Betis Balompié end in a draw?No won
- Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-04?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.