Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Bundesliga?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2a4a7765e2f05824fce5cd598c6c4a636a5aadc12607c05527b340f161fd2f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $210,563
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $246,661
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $210,563 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked No | 17c | 7,518$1,306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,305.92 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -89.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 4c | 5,799$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.04 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed No | 12c | 4,002$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 3,493$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.92 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 80c | 2,899$2,319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.75 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46ce…c842backed No | 2c | 2,685$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75fc…e7d1backed No | 2c | 2,500$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 3c | 1,820$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.22 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb5c…903dbacked No | 12c | 1,710$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 5c | 1,315$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.04 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -3.8wins | -0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -45%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c11…778fbacked No | 1c | 1,119$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 7c | 999.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.85 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 3c | 890.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 4c | 830.71$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fdc3backed No | 5c | 800$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b2…4be3backed No | 2c | 731.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…63b6backed No | 4c | 635.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x593f…9f89backed No | 4c | 602.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03de…4bfdbacked No | 6c | 600$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked No | 4c | 590.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd0f…5aabbacked No | 5c | 531.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x860f…422ebacked Yes | 79c | 500$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0624…053fbacked No | 7c | 499.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 4c | 499.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb4…0215backed No | 5c | 450$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 5c | 450$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 210 | 41.9%88 W · 122 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…40acbacked No | 3c | 407.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed No | 8c | 383$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.14 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc41c…e7adbacked Yes | 79c | 346.08$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3602…b407backed No | 11c | 291$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.01 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x844a…ba1abacked No | 14c | 279.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 11c | 270$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b8…ba65backed No | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcab9…99d0backed No | 5c | 230.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…e35fbacked Yes | 78c | 200.66$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.15 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…cbcdbacked No | 11c | 198$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked No | 23c | 176.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.77 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 6c | 173.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd86…0f8abacked Yes | 78c | 121.5$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…5ba4backed Yes | 79c | 101.27$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x344d…1278backed Yes | 79c | 101.27$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…0446backed Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed No | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc2…0933backed Yes | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe608…0c2cbacked No | 24c | 74.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf265…348dbacked Yes | 79c | 70.04$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89c1…c762backed Yes | 77c | 50.87$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…5a9abacked No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1754…2e79backed No | 22c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 73c | 42.59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e07…2b1fbacked Yes | 76c | 40.79$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5f…005fbacked Yes | 77c | 40.05$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3291…2273backed Yes | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3f…994fbacked Yes | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…a572backed Yes | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 107 | 71%76 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf855…d955backed Yes | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5860…8d6fbacked Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…7fd3backed Yes | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019a…7df0backed Yes | 69c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Bundesliga?this page
- Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Bundesliga?No won
- Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Bundesliga?No won
- Will FC Augsburg win the 2025–26 Bundesliga?No won
- Will FC Heidenheim win the 2025–26 Bundesliga?No won
- Will FC Koln win the 2025–26 Bundesliga?No won
- Will Freiburg win the 2025–26 Bundesliga?No won
- Will Hamburger SV win the 2025–26 Bundesliga?No won
- Will Hoffenheim win the 2025–26 Bundesliga?No won
- Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Bundesliga?No won
- Will Mainz win the 2025–26 Bundesliga?No won
- Will Mgladbach win the 2025–26 Bundesliga?No won
- Will RB Leipzig win the 2025–26 Bundesliga?No won
- Will St Pauli win the 2025–26 Bundesliga?No won
- Will Stuttgart win the 2025–26 Bundesliga?No won
- Will Union Berlin win the 2025–26 Bundesliga?No won
- Will VfL Wolfsburg win the 2025–26 Bundesliga?No won
- Will Werder Bremen win the 2025–26 Bundesliga?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.