TailMyPicks
Market

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Bundesliga?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$383,029
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$447,058

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $383,029 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x593f…9f89backed Yes2c31,983$576 inLost-$575.7180%0 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5ab…ff89backed Yes2c15,626$297 inLost-$296.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes2c15,287$298 inLost-$298.27147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick18cpaid-89.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes2c10,264$188 inLost-$187.823520%7 W · 28 L-3.6wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-50.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbf21…be19backed Yes2c4,454$91 inLost-$90.682860.7%17 W · 11 L+3.6wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+15.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x439b…2c9abacked Yes4c4,274$175 inLost-$174.77771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick66cpaid-5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Yes5c4,259$205 inLost-$204.758250%41 W · 41 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c4,133$91 inLost-$90.86267.7%2 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-29%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ad4…fdc3backed Yes2c2,500$48 inLost-$47.5728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-25.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes1c2,402$20 inLost-$20.45425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-41.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8b5…b789backed Yes3c2,195$58 inLost-$58.3640%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e97…8908backed Yes2c2,105$40 inLost-$4050%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes2c2,029$42 inLost-$42.143644.4%16 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5c2…cfb5backed Yes3c1,991$53 inLost-$53.3420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45fb…c3f5backed Yes8c1,962$150 inLost-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4006…f9debacked Yes1c1,811$21 inLost-$2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes2c1,800$40 inLost-$39.75250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+33.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcff2…38edbacked Yes1c1,668$10 inLost-$10.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes3c1,652$45 inLost-$45.497328.8%21 W · 52 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-21.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x848c…62b8backed Yes1c1,605$18 inLost-$17.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb01b…80ccbacked Yes1c1,422$10 inLost-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d7c…51b6backed Yes2c1,134$20 inLost-$20.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes2c874.74$20 inLost-$20.344327.9%12 W · 31 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick30cpaid+24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked Yes4c852.54$34 inLost-$34.241127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-39.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7171…7af9backed Yes2c850$14 inLost-$1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1ee…d5f8backed Yes4c842.84$34 inLost-$3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad1b…864dbacked Yes2c789$15 inLost-$14.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f91…9388backed Yes9c662.65$59 inLost-$59475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+53.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes2c618.24$12 inLost-$12.3420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes3c583.98$18 inLost-$17.670%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x29c3…14cfbacked Yes2c541$10 inLost-$10.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88ff…fa1bbacked Yes2c526.78$13 inLost-$12.64333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-42.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74e0…e01cbacked Yes6c524.91$30 inLost-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42e2…4d16backed Yes3c412$11 inLost-$11520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-63.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes3c400$12 inLost-$11.85151%26 W · 25 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48df…e4c9backed Yes5c330.59$15 inLost-$157545.3%34 W · 41 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes4c293.08$11 inLost-$11.281323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-45.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4341…6451backed Yes8c250$20 inLost-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-52%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.