Us Politics · resolved market
Trump approval Up or Down this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04e16192b39357843e4fa272cbb88c79991ef68a0ac4827a4a775468ccb8513e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Downof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,211
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,070
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,211 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x993c…6787backed Down | 58c | 2,361$1,359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,001.81 | 192 | 36.5%70 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Down | 51c | 1,210$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.22 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Up | 56c | 999.98$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.99 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Up | 38c | 669.69$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.06 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…d823backed Down | 43c | 610$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.7 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.40per pick | 35cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0541…5ecfbacked Up | 60c | 588.21$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7678…e5f0backed Up | 57c | 449.97$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.49 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…4612backed Up | 48c | 381.21$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.8 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed Down | 58c | 364.92$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.35 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc2…0b59backed Down | 36c | 321$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.54 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Up | 24c | 320.11$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.77 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Down | 43c | 300$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171 | 236 | 39.4%93 W · 143 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed Up | 55c | 300$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9e…5f7fbacked Down | 47c | 294.93$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.52 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0327…5e15backed Up | 57c | 280$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.8 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb8…902abacked Up | 59c | 195.06$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Up | 36c | 179.16$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.3 | 149 | 35.6%53 W · 96 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Up | 58c | 160$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.8 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed Down | 42c | 158.94$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.18 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…66b0backed Up | 58c | 150$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Down | 43c | 150$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.5 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd687…c066backed Up | 50c | 147.29$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.27 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Up | 40c | 144.6$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.16 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e30…6361backed Down | 55c | 124.36$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.36 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 41cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed Up | 63c | 119.6$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.58 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Up | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed Down | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…f218backed Down | 50c | 99.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.99 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Down | 28c | 92$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.86 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Up | 57c | 66.28$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.78 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | -7.7wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Down | 42c | 65.61$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.38 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Up | 26c | 52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f17…5df1backed Up | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf422…6743backed Up | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -6.5wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Down | 45c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc37b…7808backed Down | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6934…daa2backed Down | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…b071backed Up | 58c | 42.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 93 | 40.9%38 W · 55 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e29…4e37backed Up | 55c | 41.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Down | 42c | 40.34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 152 | 27.6%42 W · 110 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Down | 44c | 40.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.49 | 115 | 29.6%34 W · 81 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa899…f68dbacked Up | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb2…e222backed Down | 63c | 39.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Up | 48c | 35.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 240 | 35.4%85 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…f36bbacked Up | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x423a…4f1dbacked Up | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.44per pick | 64cpaid | -74%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e1…9897backed Up | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74e6…99e8backed Down | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e37…37adbacked Down | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6b…8115backed Down | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba14…a571backed Up | 56c | 27.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4409…7b77backed Up | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda76…bf0cbacked Up | 62c | 19.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x638e…5a5ebacked Up | 58c | 18.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd114…7043backed Up | 58c | 18.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.