Music · resolved market
Will 'Honey' be the lowest ranked song from Taylor Swift’s new album on the Billboard Hot 100 for the week of October 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc100bce19f588a0e9b559aa5cc4b4b89828846bb06605587344c2b9243ce64b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,411
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,742
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,411 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 2,127$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 14c | 1,406$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.31 | 149 | 38.9%58 W · 91 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x852f…8c21backed No | 3c | 707$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 4c | 497.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73c7…3e3dbacked No | 3c | 443.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6087…53c2backed No | 37c | 300$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ba…68fabacked No | 27c | 275$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.19 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +34%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…f218backed No | 15c | 230$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 63c | 191.58$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.88 | 66 | 28.8%19 W · 47 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 12c | 178$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 163 | 34.4%56 W · 107 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed Yes | 74c | 174.71$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 18c | 112$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 226 | 40.3%91 W · 135 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked No | 14c | 103$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5906…c04cbacked No | 21c | 96.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9e…5f7fbacked No | 20c | 66.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 75c | 43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 25c | 42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Honey' be the lowest ranked song from Taylor Swift’s new album on the Billboard Hot 100 for the week of October 18?this page
- Will 'Actually Romantic' be the lowest ranked song from Taylor Swift’s new album on the Billboard Hot 100 for the week of October 18?No won
- Will 'CANCELLED!' be the lowest ranked song from Taylor Swift’s new album on the Billboard Hot 100 for the week of October 18?No won
- Will 'Eldest Daughter' be the lowest ranked song from Taylor Swift’s new album on the Billboard Hot 100 for the week of October 18?No won
- Will 'Ruin The Friendship' be the lowest ranked song from Taylor Swift’s new album on the Billboard Hot 100 for the week of October 18?No won
- Will 'The Fate of Ophelia' be the lowest ranked song from Taylor Swift’s new album on the Billboard Hot 100 for the week of October 18?No won
- Will 'The Life of a Showgirl (feat. Sabrina Carpenter)' be the lowest ranked song from Taylor Swift’s new album on the Billboard Hot 100 for the week of October 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.