Us Politics · resolved market
Will there be another US government shutdown by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xabbc12ec87ba973d33b616ef35b93aeeb8fe7d58deb2737ed595cee7c6b18a0c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $111,312
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $108,930
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $111,312 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 3c | 5,611$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.38 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba0…a6afbacked Yes | 2c | 5,337$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa3…7e1cbacked Yes | 5c | 4,303$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…e12bbacked Yes | 5c | 4,007$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.83 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 3,750$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.93 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4e…7196backed Yes | 7c | 3,619$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.92 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 21c | 3,362$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$706.69 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x07c5…faebbacked Yes | 3c | 1,923$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe79c…c715backed Yes | 2c | 1,602$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e84…ef69backed Yes | 1c | 1,539$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes | 4c | 1,419$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.41 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 19c | 1,117$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.62 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc270…dfdebacked Yes | 15c | 1,072$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 1,016$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.12 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03c8…0e01backed Yes | 2c | 999.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39df…644bbacked No | 78c | 659.57$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.42 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 22c | 625$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.5 | 180 | 33.3%60 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765b…9a2fbacked Yes | 16c | 614.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb4…b811backed Yes | 25c | 540.79$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.2 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.25per pick | 38cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x438d…8ef2backed Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaab…24ddbacked No | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd58c…113ebacked Yes | 3c | 496.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 19c | 419.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +6.5wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1128…cfa5backed Yes | 2c | 419.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 23c | 400$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed No | 80c | 379.87$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.09 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf57f…e5fcbacked Yes | 12c | 338.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked No | 78c | 325$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.5 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd81b…f63dbacked No | 19c | 308.44$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.44 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +111.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…b2e3backed No | 78c | 301.35$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.35 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9228…e41abacked Yes | 10c | 300$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x648f…a6f2backed Yes | 12c | 277.94$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x527c…e862backed Yes | 8c | 257.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf0…08a1backed Yes | 11c | 249.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +28%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d4a…a1dcbacked Yes | 4c | 235$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dec…ad02backed Yes | 20c | 202.28$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6837…a488backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed Yes | 5c | 194.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed Yes | 6c | 167$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe860…c3d2backed Yes | 13c | 151.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 33cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba14…318abacked Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 73c | 141.43$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.77 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94c5…765abacked Yes | 19c | 140$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa835…b8dbbacked Yes | 9c | 138.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 23c | 134.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.27 | 88 | 17%15 W · 73 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a00…3c36backed Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31eb…3616backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5d…fe0fbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb8…9231backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aca…38cdbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +51%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d4…bfc6backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aad…4f78backed Yes | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.29per pick | 35cpaid | +81.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 24c | 99.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 152 | 27.6%42 W · 110 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9e…5f7fbacked Yes | 25c | 94.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked No | 79c | 91.43$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9943…3360backed Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…6bccbacked No | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc334…0e88backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 149 | 35.6%53 W · 96 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa5…3c24backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.