Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk train station by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69e655152b96e00074ff3d83c2f6e0cf98c965d698641547931dce42ee96c9f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $148,090
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $161,292
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $148,090 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 163 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 38c | 20,261$7,617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,616.77 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5739…5f1abacked Yes | 54c | 18,422$9,970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,452.1 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x509d…0f6ebacked No | 47c | 12,613$5,914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,914.32 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.23per pick | 42cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 54c | 9,267$4,979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,288.1 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 17c | 7,412$1,263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,262.68 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes | 60c | 5,818$3,507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,311.65 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 32c | 5,059$1,636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,635.8 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5922…3388backed Yes | 73c | 4,892$3,548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,343.46 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fc0…843dbacked No | 46c | 4,064$1,866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,865.61 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.19per pick | 40cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb491…c600backed Yes | 58c | 3,305$1,916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,388.72 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5113…e446backed Yes | 72c | 2,951$2,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$816.21 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed Yes | 74c | 2,458$1,815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.62 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 69c | 1,944$1,343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.12 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4518…7180backed Yes | 65c | 1,867$1,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.13 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 45c | 1,820$816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$815.84 | 158 | 55.1%87 W · 71 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 49c | 1,700$830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$869.53 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82fb…5850backed Yes | 59c | 1,662$978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684.37 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 47c | 1,651$779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779.06 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe781…5e52backed No | 36c | 1,530$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.8 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 32c | 1,305$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.39 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0103…067bbacked Yes | 60c | 1,192$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.41 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 67c | 1,191$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.93 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35fa…2bd4backed Yes | 64c | 1,050$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.5 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 58c | 1,027$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.36 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a61…2c6bbacked Yes | 76c | 1,027$783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.39 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b51…da79backed No | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed No | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…f086backed No | 43c | 859.98$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.96 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x342e…7e88backed Yes | 75c | 833$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.21 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7478…32fbbacked No | 24c | 800.55$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.33 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked No | 34c | 799.99$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.4 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b5…b789backed No | 20c | 785$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.45 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71f3…28d1backed No | 41c | 781.77$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.01 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa24d…d44bbacked Yes | 67c | 770.59$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.83 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed Yes | 56c | 767.09$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.68 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…7a45backed No | 48c | 677.7$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.03 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf643…3900backed Yes | 57c | 675.63$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.08 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 58cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed No | 48c | 629.42$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.25 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dba…2ac5backed No | 12c | 613.39$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.94 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 53c | 568.66$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.27 | 94 | 13.8%13 W · 81 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd49…0d55backed Yes | 55c | 540.76$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.66 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 27c | 530.96$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.76 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd042…7198backed Yes | 62c | 523.66$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.16 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 65c | 522.16$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.22 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed Yes | 73c | 500$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2384…3e0bbacked Yes | 57c | 499.99$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76d7…d604backed No | 38c | 499.99$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2230…a66cbacked Yes | 50c | 472.59$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.49 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed Yes | 77c | 456.74$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.74 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45a1…d31fbacked No | 38c | 450$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.3 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16f0…aba5backed Yes | 64c | 431.2$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.73 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked Yes | 47c | 423.91$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.91 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ae…3808backed No | 47c | 421.79$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee6…4050backed Yes | 51c | 389.81$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.81 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 19c | 375.01$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.7 | 171 | 22.2%38 W · 133 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf445…8184backed Yes | 60c | 375$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc6…2399backed Yes | 65c | 374.31$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.35 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ac…41f5backed No | 44c | 362.61$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.55 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 28c | 355.91$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.4 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7964…f585backed Yes | 58c | 346.44$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.44 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc711…5f03backed Yes | 58c | 343.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.16 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.23per pick | 36cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d46…c336backed Yes | 78c | 342.9$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.08 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +4.2wins | +0.25per pick | 57cpaid | +86.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2e26…336cbacked Yes | 68c | 341.87$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.1 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 21c | 336.49$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.49 | 200 | 26%52 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b9…6048backed No | 20c | 330$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.5 | 141 | 50.4%71 W · 70 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked No | 18c | 326$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.68 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadf1…1e9bbacked No | 26c | 300.22$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.63 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked No | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe81d…16bfbacked No | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x451e…65a2backed Yes | 75c | 276.79$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.58 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dd…f76dbacked Yes | 61c | 274.82$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.17 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a58…4508backed Yes | 65c | 272.76$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.36 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb46…f68bbacked No | 38c | 259.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed No | 15c | 255.43$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c14…805bbacked No | 18c | 248.38$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0be…2d76backed Yes | 51c | 246.88$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.87 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked Yes | 65c | 238.59$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.53 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0829…f6f0backed No | 42c | 236.66$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.24 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 49c | 225.01$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.89 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f2…ddd0backed Yes | 54c | 224.34$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.93 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5650…8cbabacked Yes | 54c | 222$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +139.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 48c | 210$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.2 | 128 | 30.5%39 W · 89 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed No | 51c | 209.26$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.98 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 97 | 34%33 W · 64 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 122 | 25.4%31 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9869…8f72backed Yes | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed Yes | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e30…382dbacked No | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 52c | 199.99$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5437…7e5abacked No | 40c | 198.07$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe3…e366backed Yes | 54c | 186.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.82 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c40…66a4backed Yes | 55c | 180.91$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.91 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9e…5f7fbacked Yes | 47c | 179.25$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 64c | 175$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 136 | 22.8%31 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b58…f7cbbacked Yes | 59c | 169.45$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.45 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 77c | 164$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.35 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dd…7c86backed Yes | 64c | 156.7$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.7 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture Pokrovsk train station by December 31?this page
- Will Russia capture Pokrovsk train station by November 30?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Pokrovsk train station by October 31?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Pokrovsk train station by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.