Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk train station by October 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x660efc8b04b50433a098eeb32fa650a53f1095f3a149a5f45d8b3e17f9745d13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $494,468
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $461,610
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $494,468 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 466 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 63c | 28,589$18,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,017.01 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 23c | 18,232$4,156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,076.48 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8631…9a73backed Yes | 25c | 15,389$3,918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,471.25 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 28c | 14,188$3,961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,226.99 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 22c | 13,172$2,961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,210.81 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 25c | 11,934$2,928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,006.6 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b2…3ca0backed Yes | 35c | 10,198$3,563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,634.87 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -28%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd30…ad89backed No | 78c | 10,044$7,786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,786.14 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 31c | 9,459$2,969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,490.05 | 94 | 13.8%13 W · 81 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed Yes | 33c | 8,414$2,763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,651.12 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 72c | 8,317$5,970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,969.68 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fc0…843dbacked No | 69c | 8,044$5,561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,560.99 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.19per pick | 40cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes | 67c | 7,913$5,319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,594.48 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 31c | 6,011$1,891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,119.64 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 32c | 5,728$1,842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,886.07 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x509d…0f6ebacked No | 76c | 5,700$4,334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,334 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.23per pick | 42cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2917…be8fbacked Yes | 62c | 5,506$3,417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,089.6 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x169a…c46abacked Yes | 31c | 4,994$1,558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,436.01 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 27c | 4,909$1,318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,591.06 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked Yes | 43c | 4,695$2,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,660.36 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcde0…267dbacked No | 77c | 4,640$3,566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,565.74 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda20…1f7ebacked Yes | 21c | 4,275$899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,376.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…f6d7backed Yes | 31c | 4,195$1,291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,903.86 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e78…ea77backed No | 66c | 4,131$2,719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,719.29 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5922…3388backed Yes | 34c | 3,950$1,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,609.5 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a61…2c6bbacked Yes | 27c | 3,850$1,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,828.4 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1410…a67dbacked No | 68c | 3,785$2,564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,563.56 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5650…8cbabacked Yes | 12c | 3,773$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,317.49 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +139.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed No | 75c | 3,570$2,672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,671.96 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7540…0d08backed Yes | 44c | 3,500$1,555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,945 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f2…ddd0backed Yes | 23c | 3,487$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,687.56 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed No | 72c | 3,480$2,506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,505.59 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ebc…8bdcbacked Yes | 47c | 3,421$1,624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,796.38 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…4612backed Yes | 30c | 3,371$1,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,343.27 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cf…06e3backed Yes | 30c | 3,355$1,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,346.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +232.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa47a…1db6backed No | 77c | 3,233$2,504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,503.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5dda…649cbacked Yes | 26c | 3,187$827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,359.92 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f02…a808backed Yes | 34c | 3,171$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,091.43 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe504…70efbacked No | 57c | 3,171$1,795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,794.67 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d4…187fbacked Yes | 44c | 3,000$1,316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,684.33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed Yes | 19c | 2,893$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,332.15 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc952…6087backed Yes | 24c | 2,868$682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,186.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +119.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes | 24c | 2,818$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,143.75 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 78c | 2,815$2,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,202.37 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9e…be96backed Yes | 27c | 2,809$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,053.39 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1adb…5e2dbacked No | 68c | 2,729$1,846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,845.89 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0049…3a9abacked Yes | 34c | 2,600$885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,714.56 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -58%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0481…bfecbacked Yes | 39c | 2,557$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,557.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +155.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54c5…d805backed Yes | 50c | 2,554$1,278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,275.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +99.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 11c | 2,544$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.84 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +6.8wins | +0.28per pick | 14cpaid | +203.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xddae…5d62backed Yes | 34c | 2,522$866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,656.2 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb491…c600backed Yes | 28c | 2,522$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,815.96 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfff0…54e7backed Yes | 28c | 2,396$674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,721.79 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42a4…f81abacked No | 1c | 2,343$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaef5…5ee2backed Yes | 35c | 2,220$773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,447.21 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22e2…42d6backed Yes | 31c | 2,144$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,483.69 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 27c | 2,126$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,542.48 | 106 | 25.5%27 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd98a…dfc5backed Yes | 33c | 2,100$689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,411 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1022…f0cfbacked No | 62c | 2,070$1,284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,284.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f33…0479backed Yes | 50c | 2,039$1,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,029.1 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes | 23c | 2,015$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,548.16 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c97…4569backed Yes | 29c | 2,000$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,415.81 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9619…a6c2backed Yes | 27c | 1,960$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,425.35 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +6.4wins | +0.19per pick | 34cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 2c | 1,954$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.08 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf477…1c28backed Yes | 37c | 1,928$711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,217.32 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed No | 70c | 1,919$1,348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,348.37 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -20%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6d…723abacked Yes | 11c | 1,875$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,674.98 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 24cpaid | +143%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed No | 59c | 1,849$1,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,083.75 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x451e…65a2backed Yes | 37c | 1,823$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,151.56 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9198…6b22backed Yes | 30c | 1,625$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,132.49 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 22c | 1,538$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200.19 | 128 | 30.5%39 W · 89 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b0…ce2cbacked No | 78c | 1,528$1,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,184.63 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…ef5fbacked No | 68c | 1,500$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.99 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7f…e26cbacked Yes | 33c | 1,498$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999.07 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…17b7backed Yes | 23c | 1,449$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,120.17 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 28c | 1,431$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,031.79 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb5…7588backed Yes | 24c | 1,398$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,057.65 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc11e…5d0abacked No | 61c | 1,361$837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$836.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0297…905abacked Yes | 15c | 1,302$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,102.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +551.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 1,299$925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$924.96 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb55…347ebacked No | 56c | 1,241$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed No | 72c | 1,120$809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$809.37 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed No | 70c | 1,118$787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$786.96 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 66c | 1,050$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x429a…77fbbacked No | 65c | 1,047$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681.44 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88fd…750ebacked Yes | 14c | 1,040$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$890.12 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 28c | 950.43$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$682.54 | 134 | 29.9%40 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd49…0d55backed Yes | 20c | 932.23$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.84 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2230…a66cbacked Yes | 28c | 931.07$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.52 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadf1…1e9bbacked No | 68c | 906.41$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.25 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc98b…c581backed No | 63c | 902.27$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.45 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 31c | 895.32$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.76 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb23…6c30backed No | 73c | 894.81$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 69cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9b…7285backed Yes | 16c | 837.59$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$707.59 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x968c…2c91backed No | 51c | 819$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 63c | 814.93$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.4 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee3…4ca0backed Yes | 36c | 801.05$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.04 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbb…084ebacked Yes | 42c | 799.99$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +26%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7860…07a8backed No | 69c | 769.36$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.9 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture Pokrovsk train station by October 31?this page
- Will Russia capture Pokrovsk train station by December 31?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Pokrovsk train station by November 30?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Pokrovsk train station by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.