Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk train station by November 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd11234fcbb5129d55078af6cf72950c3c1dc47b217ebd2bc6a438a389e885ebd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $119,406
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $128,674
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $119,406 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 40c | 24,909$9,873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,872.59 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 10,970$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d2…2280backed Yes | 73c | 8,619$6,285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,333.72 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed Yes | 72c | 8,577$6,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,404.48 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 67c | 6,039$4,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,985 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 59c | 4,611$2,733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,878.55 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 26c | 4,295$1,136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,135.93 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 49c | 2,746$1,346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,400.28 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed No | 19c | 2,473$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.21 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1022…f0cfbacked No | 18c | 2,466$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 24c | 2,284$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.83 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5148…cd81backed Yes | 72c | 2,142$1,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.6 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 64cpaid | +34%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc711…5f03backed Yes | 48c | 2,091$1,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,088.5 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.23per pick | 36cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82fb…5850backed Yes | 65c | 1,992$1,293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699.83 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcde0…267dbacked No | 53c | 1,906$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008.37 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 65c | 1,880$1,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.74 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb491…c600backed Yes | 63c | 1,769$1,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.49 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x451e…65a2backed Yes | 58c | 1,716$993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$723.83 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9198…6b22backed Yes | 55c | 1,635$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$734.78 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…dfb6backed No | 21c | 1,432$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.97 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x509d…0f6ebacked No | 22c | 1,395$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.25 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.23per pick | 42cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 53c | 1,384$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.41 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ebc…8bdcbacked Yes | 47c | 1,248$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658.2 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d1…1e37backed No | 28c | 1,071$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +121.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…ef5fbacked No | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd30…ad89backed No | 67c | 871$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.73 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8631…9a73backed Yes | 77c | 867.36$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.51 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f2…ddd0backed No | 39c | 777$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.03 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b5…b789backed No | 19c | 699.99$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Yes | 74c | 639.9$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.07 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xede7…4329backed No | 25c | 637.44$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f78…8461backed No | 11c | 634.77$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfff0…54e7backed Yes | 66c | 631.25$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.25 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fc0…843dbacked No | 20c | 600$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.91 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.19per pick | 40cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d92…3239backed No | 26c | 599.97$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.66 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -70%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fd…ec0cbacked No | 23c | 564.99$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.1 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadf1…1e9bbacked No | 27c | 551.93$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.17 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a61…2c6bbacked Yes | 70c | 535.33$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.14 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce3…f779backed Yes | 65c | 500$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9b…b444backed No | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +6.8wins | +0.20per pick | 48cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 20c | 500$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8e…6a53backed No | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -75%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52c4…9fabbacked No | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x342e…7e88backed Yes | 40c | 500$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b51…da79backed No | 25c | 499.99$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd49…0d55backed Yes | 65c | 484.62$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.62 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed Yes | 67c | 461.5$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.03 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7eb…423bbacked No | 31c | 456.48$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.13 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 26c | 451.49$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.16 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 68c | 418.3$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.68 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 80c | 392.03$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.94 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x017d…1290backed No | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8b…a211backed Yes | 71c | 370.4$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.1 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f20…6352backed Yes | 65c | 361.46$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.51 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +141.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe567…e4debacked No | 25c | 344.11$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -3.3wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 21c | 320.23$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.32 | 172 | 32%55 W · 117 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…f086backed No | 43c | 310$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 16c | 299.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed Yes | 75c | 285$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.65 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0b…fb1abacked No | 36c | 279.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 28c | 271.3$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.12 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 25c | 268.38$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.55 | 200 | 26%52 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf165…1493backed No | 23c | 265.18$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe301…f5c6backed Yes | 71c | 231.27$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.36 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dd…f76dbacked Yes | 79c | 222.77$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.63 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed No | 22c | 206.88$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.75 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3f…a4fdbacked No | 49c | 204.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ac…41f5backed No | 18c | 203.26$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.92 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad6…cc62backed No | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…dbcabacked Yes | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45a1…d31fbacked No | 22c | 199.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…7a45backed No | 37c | 164.17$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.38 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked Yes | 75c | 160$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.24 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28d9…17bbbacked Yes | 65c | 155$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.25 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8149…f490backed Yes | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 77c | 150$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 134 | 29.9%40 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed Yes | 68c | 149.23$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.63 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 64c | 144.26$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.93 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9605…954cbacked Yes | 74c | 143.11$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.21 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64cf…2616backed Yes | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +112.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc236…73e5backed Yes | 65c | 131.79$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.53 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.22per pick | 67cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2201…42e2backed Yes | 80c | 126.25$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fa…a1ddbacked Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +4.9wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +53%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbca…6244backed Yes | 77c | 124.58$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked Yes | 66c | 110.81$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.1 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa126…80d3backed Yes | 75c | 106.67$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 12c | 104.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 76c | 104$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8512…3bc7backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85fe…51ffbacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c1…5ae5backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 28c | 99.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 171 | 22.2%38 W · 133 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee42…86d2backed Yes | 72c | 96.64$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf639…d967backed No | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6465…e38fbacked No | 61c | 90$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.9 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes | 60c | 77.43$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.85 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a89…7003backed Yes | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture Pokrovsk train station by November 30?this page
- Will Russia capture Pokrovsk train station by December 31?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Pokrovsk train station by October 31?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Pokrovsk train station by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.