Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk train station by September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9dfb145f5a838a2343d0c17463ace42116391ad6cebfd30fd9a669db5197cfa6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $108,743
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $105,548
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $108,743 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 9c | 11,882$1,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,042.03 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 15c | 9,167$1,412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,412.18 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 79c | 5,405$4,285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,120.08 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8631…9a73backed No | 80c | 5,071$4,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,029.91 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38d4…187fbacked Yes | 24c | 4,200$1,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005.92 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed No | 75c | 3,340$2,505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$835 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4c…6cb0backed Yes | 14c | 3,048$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.86 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes | 17c | 2,500$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7540…0d08backed Yes | 29c | 2,300$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.99 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd98a…dfc5backed Yes | 20c | 2,176$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe504…70efbacked No | 78c | 2,161$1,686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.65 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 9c | 1,953$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.57 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa198…106abacked Yes | 22c | 1,778$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.28 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ebc…8bdcbacked Yes | 20c | 1,716$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 31c | 1,676$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.65 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 8c | 1,545$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.88 | 134 | 29.9%40 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb15d…96e8backed Yes | 22c | 1,492$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.38 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x451e…65a2backed Yes | 7c | 1,469$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.84 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 14c | 1,381$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.51 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed No | 73c | 1,325$961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.6 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa7df…62efbacked No | 75c | 1,285$962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.85 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked Yes | 19c | 1,269$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.49 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 14c | 1,249$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.52 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 16c | 1,206$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.46 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc609…8f0fbacked Yes | 20c | 1,163$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed No | 80c | 1,111$889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.2 | 36 | 83.3%30 W · 6 L | +7.8wins | +0.22per pick | 62cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2f33…0479backed Yes | 27c | 1,084$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.77 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 2c | 1,064$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 128 | 30.5%39 W · 89 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd25b…9f3dbacked No | 77c | 1,000$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5922…3388backed Yes | 5c | 999.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb52…51f0backed Yes | 20c | 885.01$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f2…ddd0backed Yes | 16c | 853.98$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.2 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcde0…267dbacked No | 76c | 789.54$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.54 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 17c | 751.38$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 106 | 25.5%27 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x071c…489dbacked No | 78c | 725.03$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.74 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f02…a808backed Yes | 17c | 712.94$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb55…347ebacked No | 72c | 692.2$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…e536backed No | 78c | 642.32$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.32 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…f6d7backed Yes | 16c | 624$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.3 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d41…271abacked Yes | 18c | 561.11$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7eb…423bbacked No | 71c | 541.79$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.08 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x017d…1290backed No | 77c | 519.29$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.29 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…17b7backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe301…f5c6backed Yes | 22c | 471.32$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.69 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b5…d249backed Yes | 16c | 400.1$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.02 | 68 | 30.9%21 W · 47 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac7…597ebacked Yes | 11c | 362.17$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 355.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 70 | 4.3%3 W · 67 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4c…89afbacked No | 73c | 349.99$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 6c | 320$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 75 | 2.7%2 W · 73 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc80…e7bebacked Yes | 28c | 319.56$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7c…596cbacked Yes | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c20…6291backed No | 76c | 252.66$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.11 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e78…ea77backed No | 78c | 250$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed No | 79c | 243.4$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.05 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 236.39$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.51 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd042…7198backed Yes | 24c | 205.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.86 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…7a45backed No | 76c | 200.1$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.02 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16f0…aba5backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 21c | 197.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 77c | 188.61$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.29 | 110 | 40%44 W · 66 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c45…7786backed No | 78c | 164.37$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.16 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 77cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed Yes | 21c | 162.77$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.18 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b51…da79backed No | 75c | 159.22$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.8 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 23c | 150$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 136 | 22.8%31 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5c…2e8fbacked No | 79c | 145.98$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.98 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…7c02backed No | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 94 | 75.5%71 W · 23 L | +10.9wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x94d0…9e65backed No | 76c | 130.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.97 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfd…ca1bbacked No | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed No | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 102 | 41.2%42 W · 60 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f9…4794backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…6866backed Yes | 12c | 122.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed No | 79c | 121.7$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 77c | 120$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 158 | 55.1%87 W · 71 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed No | 76c | 120$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe333…e05cbacked No | 78c | 113.1$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.17 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eef…0e99backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5dda…649cbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30b1…4a52backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a50…ff53backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89e7…0ffabacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e5…929dbacked No | 75c | 99.99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x850e…d172backed Yes | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2230…a66cbacked Yes | 16c | 92.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed Yes | 22c | 90$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24de…e576backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27d0…d4bcbacked Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa591…9079backed No | 77c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2063…1eedbacked No | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…f279backed No | 77c | 57.89$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd678…4116backed No | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes | 30c | 49.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…51acbacked No | 76c | 48.61$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 69 | 71%49 W · 20 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8f…300cbacked No | 79c | 44.49$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1106…4a1fbacked No | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4241…4da7backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture Pokrovsk train station by September 30?this page
- Will Russia capture Pokrovsk train station by December 31?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Pokrovsk train station by November 30?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Pokrovsk train station by October 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.