NFL · resolved market
Will Mike McDaniel be the next coach fired?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e2904d04d97313493d3c205d0c2a4c3daab90a2fab0c48af3dcc846b814b5c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,974
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,637
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,974 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 1c | 982.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 212 | 27.8%59 W · 153 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaef5…a454backed Yes | 34c | 508.45$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.96 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9e…5f7fbacked No | 63c | 200.74$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c0…722ebacked No | 68c | 158.15$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.61 | 46 | 71.7%33 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 135.14$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22eb…ad17backed Yes | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 32c | 125.46$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.31 | 268 | 30.6%82 W · 186 L | -29.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 63c | 123$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.51 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5394…56b2backed Yes | 35c | 79.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb364…0148backed Yes | 73c | 68.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa770…84bebacked Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed No | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 35cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 68c | 26.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -91.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mike McDaniel be the next coach fired?this page
- Will Brian Callahan be the next coach fired?Yes won
- Will Brian Daboll be the next coach fired?No won
- Will Dave Canales be the next coach fired?No won
- Will Jonathan Gannon be the next coach fired?No won
- Will Mike Tomlin be the next coach fired?No won
- Will Raheem Morris be the next coach fired?No won
- Will Zac Taylor be the next coach fired?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.