World Politics · resolved market
Will turnout be between 78% and 81% in the Netherlands Parliamentary Election 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72b5da34a3a279ce68baaf675d3888e85744cfd6155bd716dd977bb8c180391a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,030
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,502
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,030 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 22c | 3,194$697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,497.28 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +11.0wins | +0.18per pick | 31cpaid | +90%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9c…1115backed Yes | 7c | 2,057$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,913.14 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 4c | 2,026$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,935.82 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e37…03d2backed Yes | 46c | 1,777$812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$964.83 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +542.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd256…b945backed Yes | 23c | 1,699$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,300.05 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed No | 80c | 1,203$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960.08 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 7c | 1,133$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.54 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf66c…4ab1backed No | 1c | 1,104$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35b9…1d44backed Yes | 15c | 958.16$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +223.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14f7…a7a9backed Yes | 59c | 887.22$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c93…d15cbacked Yes | 19c | 773.28$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$623.16 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8731…1181backed No | 78c | 753.58$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.2 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed No | 78c | 700$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac0c…739cbacked Yes | 26c | 622.64$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.64 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6f…8afbbacked Yes | 21c | 600.1$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.08 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b7…8e1ebacked Yes | 23c | 598.71$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.94 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 13c | 567.9$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.12 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…8f90backed Yes | 10c | 564.93$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.17 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | +154.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6974…1287backed Yes | 12c | 540.24$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.24 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x838b…a603backed Yes | 21c | 537.54$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.32 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…fe42backed Yes | 25c | 522.22$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.22 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0049…3a9abacked Yes | 25c | 500$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.09 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x357e…2a0cbacked Yes | 16c | 500$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 75c | 445.46$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.02 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d93…8cbebacked Yes | 7c | 440$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.19 | 169 | 40.2%68 W · 101 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 27c | 415.99$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.81 | 160 | 29.4%47 W · 113 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6e…ccc7backed Yes | 6c | 400$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +733.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 11c | 377.52$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.24 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | +9.7wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +262.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…3acbbacked Yes | 31c | 356.58$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.04 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21c8…0b09backed Yes | 6c | 330.83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +789.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc774…b6e8backed Yes | 21c | 330$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.1 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed No | 70c | 321.08$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.23 | 197 | 42.6%84 W · 113 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb86d…3e71backed Yes | 26c | 300$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.01 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +131.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 72c | 297.73$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.22 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d5…af7fbacked Yes | 59c | 277.79$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.68 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x407a…d0d3backed Yes | 18c | 277.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.57 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 69c | 276.83$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.01 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x998d…b62cbacked Yes | 7c | 274.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.75 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +165.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed No | 78c | 262.55$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.29 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed No | 72c | 240.38$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.27 | 83 | 28.9%24 W · 59 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f0…b401backed Yes | 31c | 210.55$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 16c | 204.55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.82 | 98 | 22.4%22 W · 76 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2069…c7cfbacked Yes | 28c | 203$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.04 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | +7.5wins | +0.15per pick | 15cpaid | +166.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8c…ad4bbacked No | 80c | 200$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee4…fa88backed No | 72c | 197.22$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.18 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 23c | 173.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.97 | 247 | 36.8%91 W · 156 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 14c | 158.23$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.65 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 152.23$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.8 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58ea…bcd6backed Yes | 20c | 142.43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +591.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb31…fdb4backed Yes | 24c | 140.91$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.48 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 140.81$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.95 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 18c | 132.96$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.47 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x416f…18d8backed Yes | 33c | 120$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.4 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…7d61backed Yes | 17c | 108.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +100.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 13c | 103.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.34 | 203 | 28.6%58 W · 145 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcacb…350fbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7357…22c6backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +173.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c61…ac8bbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6e…99eabacked Yes | 27c | 98.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.26 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe97d…622bbacked Yes | 23c | 97.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.96 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x889b…1aa6backed No | 78c | 91.96$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.73 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9e…5f7fbacked No | 67c | 90$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.3 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -45%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad1c…1ee2backed Yes | 30c | 88.57$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.53per pick | 14cpaid | +564.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d4…fdacbacked Yes | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafb8…d9c1backed Yes | 24c | 69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.44 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d82…8844backed No | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 65c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…f962backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a0…d7a5backed Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -62%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 30c | 41.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f1c…d151backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +139.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc90f…0d49backed No | 76c | 39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked No | 74c | 26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 50 | 72%36 W · 14 L | +6.9wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will turnout be between 78% and 81% in the Netherlands Parliamentary Election 2025?this page
- Will turnout be at least 81% in the Netherlands Parliamentary Election 2025?No won
- Will turnout be between 66% and 69% in the Netherlands Parliamentary Election 2025?No won
- Will turnout be between 69% and 72% in the Netherlands Parliamentary Election 2025?No won
- Will turnout be between 72% and 75% in the Netherlands Parliamentary Election 2025?No won
- Will turnout be between 75% and 78% in the Netherlands Parliamentary Election 2025?No won
- Will turnout be less than 66% in the Netherlands Parliamentary Election 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.