World Politics · resolved market
Will turnout be between 72% and 75% in the Netherlands Parliamentary Election 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b056c88c27231f92f200eab292a1b0302d77196df783b20eefe2e857fd58f3e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,107
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,220
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,107 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes | 22c | 9,091$2,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,035.61 | 83 | 28.9%24 W · 59 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6f…8afbbacked No | 78c | 4,917$3,811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,106.04 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 20c | 1,120$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.16 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd748…2125backed Yes | 27c | 929$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.83 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 80c | 729.85$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.9 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6974…1287backed Yes | 21c | 718.33$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 80c | 702.06$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.5 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd256…b945backed Yes | 19c | 678.98$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.87 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed Yes | 17c | 660.49$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.98 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed No | 76c | 615.97$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.32 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb73a…542cbacked Yes | 20c | 592.7$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 21c | 574.12$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.21 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2069…c7cfbacked Yes | 26c | 573.08$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | +7.5wins | +0.15per pick | 15cpaid | +166.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 27c | 539.56$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.61 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 17c | 512.28$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.61 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 25c | 506.57$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.65 | 160 | 29.4%47 W · 113 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 66c | 501.32$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.04 | 247 | 36.8%91 W · 156 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 203 | 25.6%52 W · 151 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cbc…96a6backed Yes | 30c | 391.67$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a0…d7a5backed Yes | 23c | 358.94$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.5 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -62%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x889b…1aa6backed Yes | 23c | 326.09$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked No | 74c | 279.65$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.24 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6e…99eabacked No | 74c | 270.2$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.25 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ff…e8cfbacked Yes | 19c | 259$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.21 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35b9…1d44backed Yes | 16c | 250$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +223.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes | 19c | 200.2$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.04 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5676…b103backed Yes | 31c | 199.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.4 | 205 | 38%78 W · 127 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fec…c965backed Yes | 19c | 167.82$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.18 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25a3…ce19backed Yes | 40c | 162.34$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.07 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7357…22c6backed No | 68c | 142$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +173.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 25c | 140$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.39 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a43…5ae2backed Yes | 29c | 138.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 28c | 137.1$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 347 | 26.8%93 W · 254 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…cbcdbacked No | 80c | 113$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.73 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcacb…350fbacked Yes | 25c | 100.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e01…757abacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 200 | 51.5%103 W · 97 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…cb10backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 99.2$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.92 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f1c…d151backed Yes | 23c | 90$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +139.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ba…68fabacked No | 78c | 76$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb933…fb0abacked Yes | 40c | 74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2f…833cbacked Yes | 32c | 63.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 69c | 58.17$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 203 | 28.6%58 W · 145 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd505…d392backed Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +203.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a45…1525backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 78c | 43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 67c | 42.02$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 172 | 27.9%48 W · 124 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 32c | 42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3e…9914backed Yes | 30c | 39.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 71c | 32.08$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 98 | 22.4%22 W · 76 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5f…950fbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +122.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will turnout be between 72% and 75% in the Netherlands Parliamentary Election 2025?this page
- Will turnout be at least 81% in the Netherlands Parliamentary Election 2025?No won
- Will turnout be between 66% and 69% in the Netherlands Parliamentary Election 2025?No won
- Will turnout be between 69% and 72% in the Netherlands Parliamentary Election 2025?No won
- Will turnout be between 75% and 78% in the Netherlands Parliamentary Election 2025?No won
- Will turnout be between 78% and 81% in the Netherlands Parliamentary Election 2025?Yes won
- Will turnout be less than 66% in the Netherlands Parliamentary Election 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.