World Politics · resolved market
Will turnout be at least 81% in the Netherlands Parliamentary Election 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5663b6744a6a2a3047edd5c08bd2f5b281cb8b0897bdba1228948a90394f84a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,840
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,439
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,840 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 14c | 6,938$986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$985.51 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c93…d15cbacked Yes | 4c | 2,956$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.8 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2069…c7cfbacked Yes | 1c | 2,270$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | +7.5wins | +0.15per pick | 15cpaid | +166.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5e37…03d2backed Yes | 5c | 1,721$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.16 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +542.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1352…4da4backed Yes | 7c | 1,419$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 80c | 967$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.2 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 80c | 914.8$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.3 | 247 | 36.8%91 W · 156 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed Yes | 5c | 902.03$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.6 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6476…63f2backed Yes | 5c | 840$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 4c | 749.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 166 | 16.9%28 W · 138 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +111.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 17c | 729.08$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.2 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 629.7$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.06 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed Yes | 6c | 629.04$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 2c | 607.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 167 | 6.6%11 W · 156 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad1c…1ee2backed Yes | 4c | 599.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.53per pick | 14cpaid | +564.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…8f90backed Yes | 7c | 562$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.47 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | +154.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x838b…a603backed Yes | 7c | 547.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 501.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 6c | 456.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 4c | 433.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 160 | 29.4%47 W · 113 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0049…3a9abacked Yes | 4c | 429.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…dbe0backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fec…c965backed No | 80c | 241.75$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.82 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…f962backed Yes | 11c | 228.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 7c | 225.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 98 | 22.4%22 W · 76 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf09f…8049backed Yes | 9c | 218.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…5a48backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 3cpaid | +3,937%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 21c | 189.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f35…4437backed Yes | 11c | 173$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +397.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ae…c6e0backed Yes | 8c | 165.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9e…5f7fbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -45%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 21c | 68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 203 | 28.6%58 W · 145 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1037…413fbacked No | 80c | 38.57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…9e25backed No | 80c | 24.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will turnout be at least 81% in the Netherlands Parliamentary Election 2025?this page
- Will turnout be between 66% and 69% in the Netherlands Parliamentary Election 2025?No won
- Will turnout be between 69% and 72% in the Netherlands Parliamentary Election 2025?No won
- Will turnout be between 72% and 75% in the Netherlands Parliamentary Election 2025?No won
- Will turnout be between 75% and 78% in the Netherlands Parliamentary Election 2025?No won
- Will turnout be between 78% and 81% in the Netherlands Parliamentary Election 2025?Yes won
- Will turnout be less than 66% in the Netherlands Parliamentary Election 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.