World Politics · resolved market
Will turnout be between 75% and 78% in the Netherlands Parliamentary Election 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19711dee2bbf62810e927e65d16cd08a8dc38d3e92c7e58a3d7a03f2d3103011
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,824
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,508
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,824 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc833…0234backed Yes | 78c | 5,000$3,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,899.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes | 36c | 2,322$829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$829.12 | 83 | 28.9%24 W · 59 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 25c | 1,595$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,203.02 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +11.0wins | +0.18per pick | 31cpaid | +90%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 60c | 1,171$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.33 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6f…8afbbacked Yes | 43c | 1,138$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.73 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 25c | 1,129$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.3 | 247 | 36.8%91 W · 156 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 66c | 895.53$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.72 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd256…b945backed Yes | 35c | 833$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.59 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 47c | 664.08$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.42 | 160 | 29.4%47 W · 113 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 649.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 42c | 527.53$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.25 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cbc…96a6backed Yes | 4c | 523.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8731…1181backed Yes | 76c | 521.88$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.08 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4fd…351fbacked Yes | 3c | 501.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 74c | 500$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.8 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 61c | 474.26$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.32 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed Yes | 51c | 469.55$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.22 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d93…8cbebacked Yes | 21c | 390$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.08 | 169 | 40.2%68 W · 101 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x600c…10c8backed Yes | 3c | 387.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f58…129abacked Yes | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +582.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a93…32a0backed Yes | 65c | 274.84$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.88 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 41cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked No | 53c | 270.08$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.7 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed No | 67c | 254.42$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.03 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x889b…1aa6backed Yes | 46c | 217.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a0…d7a5backed Yes | 44c | 216.4$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.35 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -62%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f0…b401backed Yes | 33c | 211.21$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 46c | 185.09$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.59 | 98 | 22.4%22 W · 76 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 32c | 184.6$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.63 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc6…72e4backed No | 9c | 150$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +455.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb86d…3e71backed Yes | 12c | 144$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +131.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9e…5f7fbacked No | 75c | 138$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.01 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -45%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 26c | 136.77$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.28 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 57c | 129.47$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.08 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac0c…739cbacked No | 16c | 125.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.86 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6e…99eabacked Yes | 50c | 125.74$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.87 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 15c | 120.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a43…5ae2backed Yes | 39c | 103.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 97.8$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d61…0000backed Yes | 33c | 96.29$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.48 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcacb…350fbacked Yes | 37c | 95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ebf…84cabacked Yes | 55c | 91.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1804…bd47backed No | 79c | 90$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 69cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e01…757abacked Yes | 26c | 75.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9e…4580backed Yes | 40c | 73.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 75c | 68$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c61…ac8bbacked Yes | 39c | 67.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb933…fb0abacked Yes | 32c | 56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c67…a109backed Yes | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bf…0c2cbacked Yes | 41c | 52.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x838b…a603backed Yes | 52c | 51.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 103 | 44.7%46 W · 57 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa95f…2bdbbacked Yes | 55c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e2…4e80backed Yes | 41c | 48.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc677…80febacked Yes | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72d9…f18abacked No | 60c | 46.2$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +105.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed4…a52abacked No | 64c | 44.63$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 43.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7011…5b05backed No | 60c | 41.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53cb…f7bdbacked Yes | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f1c…d151backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +139.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x042f…f951backed Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…0b8cbacked Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…f962backed No | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba5…9122backed Yes | 41c | 35.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35b9…1d44backed Yes | 33c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +223.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d5…af7fbacked Yes | 54c | 31.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…9a61backed Yes | 38c | 31.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd28…2aefbacked Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 38c | 28.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b3…a0d9backed No | 60c | 27.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 66c | 21.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 172 | 27.9%48 W · 124 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…97d2backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4083…363fbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -38%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2b…84f4backed No | 61c | 19.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will turnout be between 75% and 78% in the Netherlands Parliamentary Election 2025?this page
- Will turnout be at least 81% in the Netherlands Parliamentary Election 2025?No won
- Will turnout be between 66% and 69% in the Netherlands Parliamentary Election 2025?No won
- Will turnout be between 69% and 72% in the Netherlands Parliamentary Election 2025?No won
- Will turnout be between 72% and 75% in the Netherlands Parliamentary Election 2025?No won
- Will turnout be between 78% and 81% in the Netherlands Parliamentary Election 2025?Yes won
- Will turnout be less than 66% in the Netherlands Parliamentary Election 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.