Weather · resolved market
Will a hurricane make landfall in the US by October 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x60660c1cf3125eb337f0587d5ceeb8e993f9edf4c4ea49f9316e650da7073120
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,314
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,307
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,314 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 65c | 5,000$3,237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,762.47 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 17c | 4,624$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780.87 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80a9…d956backed Yes | 38c | 2,645$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 15c | 2,549$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.98 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked Yes | 3c | 2,251$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.28 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3479…f2bdbacked Yes | 5c | 2,092$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf488…5c8fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,559$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 35c | 1,300$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.01 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 24c | 1,052$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.47 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a5…5f3cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3762…7ff4backed No | 72c | 828$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.74 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.21per pick | 66cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6950…b32abacked Yes | 34c | 599.99$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 69c | 467$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.38 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…b5c7backed Yes | 16c | 463.88$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 24c | 400$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.2 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 59c | 399.99$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.99 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 7c | 320.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d6…d67abacked No | 76c | 291.11$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.44 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8149…f490backed Yes | 36c | 268.33$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked No | 64c | 222$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.92 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +97.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa80e…dfefbacked Yes | 47c | 213.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 43c | 207.25$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.88 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 66c | 174.31$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.24 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd726…a51dbacked No | 66c | 161.21$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23c4…ae60backed Yes | 17c | 159.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6692…1125backed Yes | 38c | 158.88$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 21c | 154.87$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fab…3c98backed No | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe30e…8edfbacked No | 68c | 147.05$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed Yes | 36c | 110.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 50c | 108.55$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.28 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9e…5f7fbacked No | 66c | 104.44$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.51 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…f218backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 70cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f4…ef6abacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ba…408fbacked Yes | 26c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.20per pick | 25cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x19c5…511dbacked Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1caf…70fdbacked Yes | 48c | 84.12$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked Yes | 53c | 83.85$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc29…bc5dbacked Yes | 45c | 81.39$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2687…9a43backed No | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd883…4fd7backed Yes | 39c | 77.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4c…3486backed Yes | 34c | 75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2945…862ebacked No | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4747…492dbacked Yes | 46c | 71.74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 28c | 71.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 95 | 23.2%22 W · 73 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1faa…406ebacked No | 58c | 66.02$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x154f…9a12backed No | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa08b…77b0backed Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 35c | 58.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 60c | 57.89$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 49cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x47a8…e99dbacked No | 65c | 53.85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 50c | 52.08$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.79 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…1bbabacked Yes | 42c | 51.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 121 | 25.6%31 W · 90 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 49c | 51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 50c | 50.09$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.81 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbce2…1693backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…01febacked No | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked No | 51c | 46.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 96 | 53.1%51 W · 45 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a8…7258backed Yes | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51a0…436bbacked No | 55c | 36.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f1…1ebdbacked No | 56c | 35.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 41c | 33.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 84 | 10.7%9 W · 75 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab9…fd27backed No | 77c | 30.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c03…12b2backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed Yes | 47c | 29.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2363…b496backed Yes | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed No | 66c | 21.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ca…c084backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55af…3274backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.