Earnings · resolved market
Will Interactive Brokers Group (IBKR) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d3a78376b50e04fdc49fb0318f01bac1ae45fc41217718df5dfc32e985ce839
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,626
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,501
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,626 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed No | 20c | 3,108$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.72 | 122 | 64.8%79 W · 43 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 79c | 1,317$1,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.34 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 77c | 1,317$1,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.37 | 117 | 23.1%27 W · 90 L | -18.3wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Yes | 78c | 1,283$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.63 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 22c | 1,278$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.08 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6978…08d8backed Yes | 71c | 1,271$902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.43 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8506…10eabacked Yes | 78c | 1,150$895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +156.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 27c | 1,000$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.49 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x765b…9a2fbacked No | 11c | 902.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6162…3495backed No | 30c | 778.51$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed No | 26c | 712.04$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.48 | 82 | 67.1%55 W · 27 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 20c | 694.12$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 172 | 26.7%46 W · 126 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc623…9afdbacked Yes | 74c | 686.36$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc31d…4ebebacked No | 16c | 499.98$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…4f17backed No | 20c | 484.57$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.3 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…ea33backed No | 22c | 460.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked No | 13c | 433.36$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.67 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…451cbacked No | 20c | 399.98$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd431…2105backed No | 19c | 391.68$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 73c | 390.97$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.56 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 76c | 379$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.52 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 16c | 370.95$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.93 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 72c | 335.13$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.77 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dcf…9bb1backed No | 6c | 329.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 17c | 328.75$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.7 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x203a…ada4backed No | 16c | 319.98$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 18c | 313.26$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.69 | 80 | 12.5%10 W · 70 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…4deabacked No | 29c | 300$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.75 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabdd…f499backed No | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked No | 13c | 300$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5553…6d2ebacked No | 17c | 299.97$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x146b…1d38backed No | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9e…5f7fbacked Yes | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 17c | 199.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 67 | 25.4%17 W · 50 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd687…c066backed No | 15c | 199.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 26c | 174.81$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.37 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…73acbacked No | 17c | 169.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 28c | 169$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.32 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc61a…9544backed Yes | 73c | 150$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 76cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a42…b1a5backed Yes | 72c | 149.99$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf21a…1e6cbacked No | 14c | 129.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0cd…45abbacked No | 17c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…624cbacked No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0e…0b82backed Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc64b…3655backed No | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 31c | 98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 578 | 38.9%225 W · 353 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3161…623dbacked Yes | 78c | 93.93$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.89 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed No | 21c | 83.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 203 | 31.5%64 W · 139 L | -14.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe325…b4b3backed Yes | 74c | 81.08$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed No | 22c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ab…23cbbacked No | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2722…7e87backed No | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30c…ddfbbacked Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa444…800dbacked No | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb011…2d13backed Yes | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x301f…cda2backed No | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa7…fb5dbacked Yes | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb984…e881backed Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee05…c173backed Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…5d91backed Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23ca…9ae6backed Yes | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 96 | 65.6%63 W · 33 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22ea…0a94backed Yes | 74c | 22.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked Yes | 71c | 21.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f7…2501backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +112.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80ae…621bbacked Yes | 74c | 18.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 78cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb63f…c116backed Yes | 74c | 15.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.