TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Earnings · resolved market

Will Exxon Mobil (XOM) beat quarterly earnings?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$74,423
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$74,029

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,423 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Earnings
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd5b9…e44ebacked No6c5,772$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.9917226.7%46 W · 126 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked No14c3,893$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562.081816.7%3 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-35.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b92…42e6backed Yes75c2,405$1,807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$597.8412264.8%79 W · 43 L+15.2wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+14.6%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No16c2,262$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.126334.6%91 W · 172 L-14.2wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0509…6e98backed No17c1,977$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.1220331.5%64 W · 139 L-14.1wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-27.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2535…053fbacked No14c1,830$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.583520%7 W · 28 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-16%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dc6…aad8backed Yes80c1,781$1,419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.822462.5%15 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No22c1,583$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.592934.5%10 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x58f4…12a9backed No16c1,552$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.5780%0 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x10fb…c66cbacked No15c1,507$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.3520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed No25c1,500$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3691811.1%2 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-48.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x663b…2308backed Yes77c867.34$668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.495100%5 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+36.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8bab…4f17backed No16c849.6$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.0613235.6%47 W · 85 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2200…0f2dbacked No2c836.26$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.845719.3%11 W · 46 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+23.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6978…08d8backed Yes76c750$568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.52934.5%10 W · 19 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-42.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x65e3…5f31backed No17c717.69$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.0120%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09da…6dffbacked No24c696.95$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.182025%5 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+39.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbcee…0f35backed No22c682.65$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick63cpaid-13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed No14c654.72$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.83128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-70.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x58f5…be7bbacked Yes76c629.97$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.892560%15 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick62cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0144…38ccbacked No3c615$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.65250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+78.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd31f…094cbacked No13c578.31$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.4740%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No13c558.6$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.6446314.3%66 W · 397 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-34.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09ad…04e4backed No18c551.82$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick25cpaid+11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No22c500$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11033025.2%83 W · 247 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdce0…5ba0backed No11c481$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.514613%6 W · 40 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No19c467.08$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.471618.8%3 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-41.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x304f…9a10backed No13c450$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597812.8%10 W · 68 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick13cpaid+12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfceb…37dabacked No21c399.99$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.85520%11 W · 44 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes79c391.16$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.9376137.6%286 W · 475 L+35.5wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+20.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No7c376.89$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.843324.2%8 W · 25 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-33.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbea…7662backed No23c352.58$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.841513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-13.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x057d…4d1fbacked No23c351.27$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.581145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+52.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf245…1df4backed No14c350$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95b2…49aabacked No15c341.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.12313%3 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+27.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4ba…68fabacked No21c322$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.9313432.8%44 W · 90 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x098c…e4e1backed No12c298.37$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.67731.2%24 W · 53 L-5.3wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-22.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0fc2…ac7dbacked No22c276.52$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick24cpaid-55.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8cd9…714cbacked No21c271.21$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed No13c263.97$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.611910.5%2 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick22cpaid-65.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xac45…ea33backed Yes79c253.06$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.611533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed No14c250.27$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick22cpaid-73%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x49b5…e5eebacked No23c219.8$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502030%6 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-40.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe72…cb10backed No15c200$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-71.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e9e…5f7fbacked Yes76c200$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481070%7 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick65cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe408…232bbacked No15c199.71$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.961520%3 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-43%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No5c191.81$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.215038%19 W · 31 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1018…7264backed No27c180$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.61216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-50.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x10bb…d49dbacked Yes79c176.77$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.1110272.5%74 W · 28 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick66cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc3da…d974backed No24c175.9$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.71216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0cd…45abbacked No23c170$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.717816.7%13 W · 65 L-0.4wins0.00per pick17cpaid+16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked No16c165$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.066725.4%17 W · 50 L-0.3wins0.00per pick26cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc42f…78a0backed No23c150$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick25cpaid-76.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked No16c149.98$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242035%7 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd40d…5652backed No15c133.83$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick17cpaid-48.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Yes77c129.87$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.871883.3%15 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick71cpaid+10%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x90c1…f6bebacked No8c126.28$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1070%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No10c119.37$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.629024.1%70 W · 220 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-22.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c66…31e3backed Yes78c112.6$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.0211860.2%71 W · 47 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe44c…4547backed No24c108.65$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262626.9%7 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-33.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf57…053bbacked No19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.53053.3%16 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-14.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc1cf…9656backed Yes77c100$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239247.8%44 W · 48 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6692…1125backed Yes77c100$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-35.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a5d…9ea3backed Yes79c100$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2110760.7%65 W · 42 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc71e…f450backed No18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.74928.6%14 W · 35 L+0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fb7…61e9backed No18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.69016.7%15 W · 75 L-4.9wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-44.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc64b…3655backed No19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192317.4%4 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-47.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3356…b404backed Yes80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206100%6 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+56.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7cc9…b8a8backed No20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.22913.8%4 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick14cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef34…1d61backed Yes80c99.99$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.21546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x472c…a000backed No18c90$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.933525.7%9 W · 26 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-38.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f51…2019backed No18c85.53$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1517441.4%72 W · 102 L+0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid+11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a2f…9e9abacked Yes78c80$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2106…4deabacked No28c79.17$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.179761.9%60 W · 37 L+7.2wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+7.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x301f…cda2backed No15c70$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.51618.8%3 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick17cpaid+18.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c18…9ceabacked No24c66.5$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.96156.7%1 W · 14 L-3.8wins-0.25per pick32cpaid-91%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0x9a50…ff53backed Yes78c63.94$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.94450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-26.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9c9a…553bbacked Yes80c62.66$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.6613960.4%84 W · 55 L+14.8wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+34.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5343…0b0fbacked Yes76c62.55$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.3111771.8%84 W · 33 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c1e…bfe7backed No31c60$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.62020%4 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick22cpaid+4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cbf…2bdebacked Yes77c52.02$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.0210067%67 W · 33 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf710…edc9backed No27c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf23c…ad58backed No20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick20cpaid+69.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes76c40.5$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.723528.6%10 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick28cpaid+4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed No31c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf21a…1e6cbacked Yes79c39.88$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.484057.5%23 W · 17 L+3.5wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x64d7…4d00backed Yes79c36.52$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.5221357.3%122 W · 91 L-7.7wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x25df…ba12backed Yes76c36.46$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.752100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8d3…cc60backed Yes78c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.57475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+11%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d62…fc71backed Yes79c30$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.234087.5%35 W · 5 L+7.6wins+0.19per pick68cpaid+28.5%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes71c26.16$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.594346.5%20 W · 23 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-25.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1506…4f3ebacked Yes77c25.97$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.971090%9 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick70cpaid+31.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x44fa…ddabbacked Yes78c25.76$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.761662.5%10 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick75cpaid-15.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x29e2…fb50backed Yes78c25.64$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.64683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.24per pick59cpaid+33.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf8b3…4798backed Yes78c25.64$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.643100%3 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+27.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc90f…0d49backed Yes79c25.38$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.381258.3%7 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick74cpaid-22.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd7d5…af7fbacked Yes80c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid-13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43d1…bbb9backed Yes80c20.08$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaed2…8e93backed Yes80c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.09366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick64cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.8580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.31per pick49cpaid+64.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.