Earnings · resolved market
Will PepsiCo (PEP) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a84f18a410227e4579a509b346913dde3664ce5f332d77ab37cab7aca1e35bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,990
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,315
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,990 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3751…7dfdbacked No | 7c | 2,945$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.63 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +87.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc6…aad8backed Yes | 77c | 1,950$1,502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.5 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 17c | 1,746$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.66 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 25c | 1,663$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.06 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 8c | 1,278$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.63 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6978…08d8backed No | 22c | 1,232$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.1 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 23c | 1,111$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.27 | 330 | 25.2%83 W · 247 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 6c | 999.51$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed No | 8c | 942.89$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.12 | 122 | 64.8%79 W · 43 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed No | 12c | 869.8$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.38 | 203 | 31.5%64 W · 139 L | -14.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…4deabacked Yes | 75c | 867.46$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.83 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 7c | 799.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.3 | 172 | 26.7%46 W · 126 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 75c | 754$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.5 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x663b…2308backed Yes | 78c | 732.07$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.05 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0e…0b82backed Yes | 77c | 668.78$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.82 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x820b…f7f4backed No | 8c | 499.98$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd31f…094cbacked No | 6c | 420.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 77c | 389.61$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.61 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed No | 26c | 360$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.8 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 23c | 360$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.2 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 22c | 332.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.09 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…ea33backed No | 12c | 327.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x304f…9a10backed No | 9c | 300$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 78 | 12.8%10 W · 68 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 9c | 280.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa374…9709backed No | 10c | 272.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa150…416abacked No | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95b2…49aabacked No | 9c | 250$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff2d…42a4backed No | 9c | 234.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 8c | 211.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 10c | 200.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 189 | 41.3%78 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9e…5f7fbacked Yes | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…cb10backed No | 9c | 199.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 78c | 184.5$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.59 | 207 | 42%87 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dfb…71b7backed No | 23c | 159$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.21 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf1…ee1dbacked No | 9c | 157.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09f2…f720backed No | 10c | 142.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb96…b991backed No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed No | 10c | 114.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2722…7e87backed No | 10c | 101.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b35…9dd7backed No | 10c | 100.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x301f…cda2backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c18…9ceabacked No | 23c | 69.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.25per pick | 32cpaid | -91%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 155 | 30.3%47 W · 108 L | -20.2wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6e…f73dbacked Yes | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed No | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 27c | 59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 80c | 59$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…78a0backed No | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5019…ab07backed No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc1…86d8backed Yes | 78c | 48.38$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb63f…c116backed No | 25c | 47.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked No | 25c | 46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1506…4f3ebacked Yes | 76c | 26.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 70cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1253…d809backed Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d5…af7fbacked Yes | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.