TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Taylor Swift holds top ten spots on the Billboard Hot 100 for the week of October 18th?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$424,810
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$433,975

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $424,810 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x41ea…7a3dbacked No1c40,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc167…e458backed No2c23,622$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91ce…16ecbacked No15c17,672$2,725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,725.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No9c14,925$1,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,315.6310529.5%31 W · 74 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No8c14,186$1,186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,186.322646.2%12 W · 14 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick37cpaid-3.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd24c…eaf0backed No1c12,850$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.3320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5739…e4dcbacked No3c10,727$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe7c…8356backed No1c9,982$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.83622.2%8 W · 28 L-4.4wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-58.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf8fb…19dcbacked No1c9,091$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x405f…4940backed No0c8,864$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x103f…2f56backed No1c8,141$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebd6…d7adbacked No3c8,138$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaee2…ef02backed No2c7,009$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed No3c6,999$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.9750%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d3…f399backed No7c5,898$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.9550%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa55b…f844backed No2c5,833$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa57…a128backed No2c5,536$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.65944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-31.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x927c…a0dfbacked No3c5,009$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed No4c4,776$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.681414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-68.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa836…1c10backed No6c4,492$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x852f…8c21backed No2c4,467$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3000…0d25backed No6c3,825$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x322a…be5dbacked No3c3,799$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked No6c3,145$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.572924.1%7 W · 22 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-23.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked No14c3,027$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.991520%3 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick22cpaid+33.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes65c2,214$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$774.44540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+2,956.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b3b…a2d3backed No5c2,197$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.6220%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0619…fe26backed No3c2,173$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.61250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-32.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56dc…a336backed No5c2,063$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed Yes78c1,937$1,510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.721275%9 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3413…2657backed Yes80c1,848$1,471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.93683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.24per pick59cpaid+53.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0113…6f26backed No33c1,748$579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.311233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-53.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9503…c47fbacked No1c1,667$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3295…ce54backed No2c1,608$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked No12c1,608$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.492544%11 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a6a…535fbacked No2c1,537$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Yes78c1,499$1,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.46366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid+8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66cd…f6b3backed No4c1,400$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x415e…4448backed No2c1,294$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed No9c1,275$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.557844.9%35 W · 43 L+6.1wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+22.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc254…3f73backed No23c1,262$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.08742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-39.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Yes70c1,238$872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.251625%4 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-58.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd904…9bf4backed No2c1,196$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbed1…0c44backed No2c886.67$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab8e…3d89backed No15c799.12$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-14.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb27…88e8backed No2c778.56$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06fc…74c9backed No1c770.38$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No5c748$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.94629.7%45 W · 417 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-42.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90bf…99ebbacked No3c600$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.98250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-28.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes56c598.72$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.461637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd1b…75d8backed No6c533.33$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6f5…b3c1backed No2c526.32$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0372…8404backed Yes79c520$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.72100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+155.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x699d…4260backed No11c516.56$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed No6c500$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283710.8%4 W · 33 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick17cpaid+62.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x57a3…9dcdbacked No50c500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-49.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d25…0ed3backed No4c465.12$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9995…132dbacked No16c440.49$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb40…ac42backed No5c418.06$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd66c…97e3backed No10c406.06$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.1119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick20cpaid-78.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf58…d9bdbacked No6c400$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x795d…63e7backed No27c382.4$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.11936.8%7 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+104%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5b8…83b9backed No11c374.52$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ab9…fd27backed No21c311.94$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.81333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-53.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x513a…d94abacked No4c299.73$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c9d…2ee4backed No50c299.05$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+72.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf8a…085bbacked No9c297.98$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.130%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x21b0…8e5dbacked No4c291.38$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x338b…dc2abacked No9c287.5$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c67…bb39backed No34c250$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.921631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe2a6…1b6cbacked No12c246.66$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8825%2 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-29.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes72c243$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.5816250.6%82 W · 80 L+11.6wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+8.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3846…029abacked No14c241.26$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36bf…2864backed No7c239.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid+25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb07f…02e2backed Yes69c221.61$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb72c…653ebacked No37c200$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$741520%3 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-12.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x45fa…9918backed No6c195.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f96…3608backed No10c171.22$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa314…5ba7backed Yes68c155.9$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.491952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-18.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcaab…24ddbacked Yes61c151.68$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.42757.1%4 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.31per pick26cpaid+74.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3ad7…86bfbacked Yes72c139.45$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.45540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+52.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4ec…5ab3backed No18c138.89$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No8c135.71$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.865836.2%21 W · 37 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdf…d2f8backed No19c134.21$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1620%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ccb…e4eabacked No18c121.77$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.92333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick20cpaid-16.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x47a8…e99dbacked No23c120$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda47…f40abacked Yes60c113$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.2580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick50cpaid+56.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes70c113$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.83944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x300f…d366backed No39c106.42$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e9e…5f7fbacked Yes65c100.55$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.6425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-61.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes62c100.5$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.522839.3%11 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-10.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Yes74c100$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.7519939.2%78 W · 121 L-0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104434.1%15 W · 29 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-42.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No49c94.68$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.397842.3%33 W · 45 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8ca…701bbacked No56c82.34$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1a2…57febacked No33c79.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+57.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b00…6676backed Yes71c60$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35d3…cec3backed No37c54.05$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f1…2d5fbacked Yes70c50.21$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.21850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-22.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe827…5209backed No44c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.