Earnings · resolved market
Will Lamb Weston Holdings (LW) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13fd1703dbea9cf94b03760e1685bdafb7ea06dc5b3da0e0e583eeeafc0a4657
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,484
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,821
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,484 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6dc6…aad8backed Yes | 77c | 1,225$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.75 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d68…402cbacked No | 32c | 1,073$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.36 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 39cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 68c | 939.88$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.76 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…12a9backed No | 12c | 912.25$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.47 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4b…8a81backed Yes | 74c | 674.69$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6978…08d8backed Yes | 68c | 520$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2945…862ebacked No | 32c | 317.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dbc…3b68backed No | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +112.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 31c | 271.57$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.02 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 68c | 256$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.42 | 117 | 23.1%27 W · 90 L | -18.3wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0b…fb1abacked Yes | 69c | 210$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.1 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9915…3704backed Yes | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 68c | 188.37$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.16 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf3…68aebacked Yes | 69c | 155.54$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.02 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 69c | 150$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e30…6361backed No | 34c | 145.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9e…5f7fbacked Yes | 68c | 118.5$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.92 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f2…5bb5backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9df7…36cdbacked Yes | 75c | 97.1$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.27 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 71cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55d8…0cf5backed No | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3161…623dbacked Yes | 69c | 85.71$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.21 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…d218backed No | 25c | 83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x223e…43c7backed Yes | 68c | 69.91$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.37 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb72c…653ebacked Yes | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c18…9ceabacked No | 32c | 49.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.25per pick | 32cpaid | -91%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed1…6cf0backed Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1506…4f3ebacked Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 70cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…f086backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 64c | 19.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed Yes | 67c | 18.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.