Middle East · resolved market
Greta Thunberg arrested by October 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8390dc49b801ce8b7ebfca4ececbd487fda18ac8be10918be549e003d3cb60b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,911
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,802
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,911 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x94c5…765abacked No | 1c | 6,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca3…0182backed No | 1c | 2,988$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 77c | 2,723$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.84 | 202 | 47%95 W · 107 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…32ccbacked No | 6c | 1,934$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd273…03afbacked No | 17c | 1,659$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +88.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x246b…1196backed Yes | 72c | 1,339$958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.19 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4477…7cbbbacked No | 5c | 1,240$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9e…5f7fbacked Yes | 73c | 1,177$856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aad…4f78backed No | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked No | 24c | 912.11$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf920…4d4ebacked No | 12c | 833.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +26%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 75c | 789.53$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.47 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf303…355ebacked No | 13c | 751.58$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +137.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18f6…02c4backed No | 22c | 748.08$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 4c | 720.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 266 | 16.5%44 W · 222 L | -24.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 7c | 662.72$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.21 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 12c | 586.97$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.37 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x719b…c995backed No | 17c | 586.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe964…f5a9backed No | 43c | 585$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.56 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked No | 15c | 546.16$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.9 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…e0e9backed No | 21c | 480.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x319e…c42abacked No | 22c | 463.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad7b…63dabacked No | 29c | 437.89$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.99 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d7…715dbacked No | 23c | 433.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 8c | 406.83$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 75c | 400$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 77c | 384.91$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.48 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 77c | 364.17$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.6 | 118 | 51.7%61 W · 57 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e30…6361backed No | 16c | 350$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fda…5b87backed Yes | 70c | 300$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 79 | 40.5%32 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a4…0064backed Yes | 72c | 279.45$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.45 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad16…6de3backed No | 27c | 269.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9437…6c5dbacked No | 27c | 257.7$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 4c | 245.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x98ec…8fd6backed No | 18c | 228$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c94…31bfbacked No | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3718…dd6cbacked No | 17c | 206.48$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 12c | 201.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e31…4716backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +177.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b5…b789backed No | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 25cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x594a…a8f4backed No | 27c | 182.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c24…215bbacked No | 10c | 176.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 9c | 175.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0327…5e15backed Yes | 73c | 166$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.62 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f38…3d10backed No | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61e6…94eebacked No | 25c | 158.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -54%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 74c | 157.8$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.51 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed No | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed Yes | 77c | 135.5$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -4.8wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked No | 29c | 129$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.41 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -7.3wins | -0.25per pick | 46cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9b32…3f5fbacked No | 17c | 126.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6465…e38fbacked No | 21c | 120$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd687…ddc8backed No | 25c | 119.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2425…3dd1backed No | 13c | 111$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 121 | 39.7%48 W · 73 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…f836backed No | 28c | 110$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee4…dac2backed Yes | 72c | 101$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +279.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…5e33backed No | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…b8a8backed Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 58 | 27.6%16 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2502…8c47backed No | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 28c | 99.13$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.31 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 11c | 97.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 242 | 34.3%83 W · 159 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…d12cbacked No | 29c | 69.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf184…5b50backed No | 32c | 65.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed No | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…9784backed No | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9678…ab71backed No | 29c | 52.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9175…ad39backed No | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked No | 28c | 42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Yes | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed No | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1efc…8122backed No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x684c…af53backed No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f81…be7cbacked No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fed…3b22backed Yes | 72c | 36.11$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5a…efc1backed Yes | 70c | 33.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd02e…4cf2backed Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +3.5wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e1…9897backed Yes | 73c | 27.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4403…7c46backed Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.