Music · resolved market
D4vd arrested by October 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c03292e9176cc6ae5d370a628caf73eefa7c48c75bfbbaa8a3f41d68dcfed54
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,827
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,950
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,827 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 25c | 1,787$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.6 | 149 | 38.9%58 W · 91 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 13c | 1,275$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.94 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes | 29c | 1,273$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.31 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +2,956.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7678…e5f0backed Yes | 40c | 999.98$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked Yes | 35c | 979.99$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50a0…440cbacked No | 58c | 865.06$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c8…e7acbacked No | 61c | 841.4$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e2…e599backed Yes | 41c | 599.99$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15a9…677ebacked Yes | 17c | 576.94$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 79c | 572.67$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.01 | 122 | 34.4%42 W · 80 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b64…49bdbacked Yes | 41c | 499.97$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5e…450ebacked No | 77c | 455$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.76 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 9c | 411.39$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.73 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 59c | 363.93$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.93 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 27c | 300.1$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.24 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9195…72a4backed No | 61c | 294.82$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b12…aba8backed Yes | 20c | 256.25$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.75 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf936…f310backed No | 79c | 253.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.16 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13ac…fcbebacked No | 60c | 251.56$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6d…f2b4backed No | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed No | 59c | 233.67$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x776b…fb79backed Yes | 27c | 203.21$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed Yes | 12c | 200$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56a1…7b89backed Yes | 12c | 197.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f1…6caebacked No | 58c | 173.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48a3…2ba3backed No | 58c | 171.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1547…d066backed No | 66c | 171.54$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.32 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 42c | 163.74$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.49 | 226 | 40.3%91 W · 135 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 27c | 155.78$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.9 | 163 | 34.4%56 W · 107 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa791…bf23backed Yes | 40c | 130$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked No | 78c | 123$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.33 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca44…6d4ebacked Yes | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9e…5f7fbacked Yes | 41c | 118.47$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.57 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 31c | 117$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.37 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d9…d32abacked No | 61c | 103.25$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -5.3wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd5…f4f1backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b2…49aabacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed Yes | 39c | 91.79$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7265…e943backed No | 55c | 89.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5c…3d36backed No | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 55c | 86.67$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +4.3wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +24%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x76e5…4485backed Yes | 47c | 84.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f10…a9a5backed Yes | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed No | 66c | 76.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.86 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +6.2wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaefb…cecebacked No | 69c | 71.31$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…5209backed No | 59c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19c7…6045backed Yes | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e01…c7b9backed Yes | 40c | 50.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a7…5049backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…37e6backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfc…1ab3backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd8…566fbacked No | 79c | 48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae5…e2cdbacked No | 59c | 45.76$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee05…c173backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd496…9c86backed No | 69c | 33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…8fe8backed Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f40…6e9ebacked No | 64c | 26.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed Yes | 40c | 25.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40c6…fe73backed No | 59c | 23.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa46e…ef92backed No | 55c | 23.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 51c | 20.43$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b1f…4729backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.