Middle East · resolved market
Houthi strike on Israel by October 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4552e5dfe36bfe8ee768772de8706a9706c9ad2bb75b2e433ba7a8449f928ca3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,405
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,514
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,405 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 21c | 2,458$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.03 | 147 | 24.5%36 W · 111 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fdd…0d3abacked Yes | 3c | 1,013$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 57c | 957.1$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.8 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 15c | 943.62$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.76 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb2…7d7fbacked Yes | 44c | 904.76$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe162…8a81backed Yes | 56c | 895.13$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed No | 39c | 769.38$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.94 | 194 | 45.9%89 W · 105 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 3c | 695.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 662$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74f7…77c3backed No | 53c | 590$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.16 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f49…7458backed Yes | 80c | 515.45$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.35 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 40c | 501.59$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.95 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 62c | 500.06$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.1 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1616…a3fabacked No | 62c | 464.18$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.18 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 53c | 427.83$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.36 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0cec…dc3ebacked No | 60c | 415.57$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.57 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…f218backed Yes | 20c | 387.24$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.11 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -60%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed Yes | 26c | 371.29$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.02 | 153 | 31.4%48 W · 105 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce69…3e08backed Yes | 11c | 370.09$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed No | 46c | 335.86$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.21 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 21c | 287.15$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.24 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 5c | 283$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed No | 57c | 264.74$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.54 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc629…aa40backed No | 79c | 250$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb76f…7965backed Yes | 66c | 243.57$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.71 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 36c | 235.9$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.98 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +17%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8c60…1ee4backed Yes | 43c | 234.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62d5…78d1backed Yes | 25c | 203.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 200.1$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.02 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9e…5f7fbacked Yes | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0faf…d0d9backed No | 66c | 197.66$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.66 | 173 | 47.4%82 W · 91 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a4…996dbacked No | 80c | 190.63$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.13 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd42…6c2fbacked No | 59c | 168.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.9 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 14c | 163.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde60…28cabacked Yes | 62c | 157.91$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.33 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed Yes | 24c | 156.01$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.16 | 176 | 46.6%82 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52a8…9bafbacked No | 30c | 149.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed Yes | 44c | 144.19$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.51 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -4.8wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2309…d514backed No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked No | 65c | 133.09$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.68 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed Yes | 44c | 128.03$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.24 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 36c | 128.02$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.03 | 160 | 61.9%99 W · 61 L | +9.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed No | 38c | 120$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.4 | 202 | 39.1%79 W · 123 L | +20.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…1047backed No | 77c | 120$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50b2…c94abacked No | 78c | 116$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 32c | 112.56$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.94 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 30c | 109.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c29…5e43backed No | 79c | 109.68$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6614…39cfbacked No | 73c | 109.5$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff9…bb89backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -74%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb3…2682backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.07 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8227…4b3cbacked Yes | 67c | 93.01$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.51 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc75…b64dbacked No | 46c | 86.17$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.28 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b96…bed2backed No | 68c | 80.6$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 63c | 71$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.73 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Yes | 64c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…3f13backed Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5660…0593backed Yes | 36c | 55.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 44c | 54.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4320…d0bebacked No | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +89.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8596…5f66backed Yes | 43c | 50.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7f…b8fbbacked Yes | 38c | 50.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d6b…916abacked No | 66c | 50.01$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd778…6e4dbacked No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81d7…3293backed Yes | 25c | 47.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b8…0607backed No | 75c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 69cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f5…ccbbbacked No | 46c | 43.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +116.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 60c | 40.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.37 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc20e…97a7backed Yes | 50c | 39.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 41c | 37.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0f…0f39backed No | 59c | 37.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.32per pick | 54cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeed9…7405backed No | 70c | 37.04$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68bc…87f3backed No | 58c | 34.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd383…c77abacked Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8392…e3a2backed Yes | 32c | 31.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 144 | 20.8%30 W · 114 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…e021backed No | 74c | 30.86$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b09…13d3backed Yes | 46c | 30.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -3.1wins | -0.44per pick | 58cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd02e…4cf2backed No | 69c | 28.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +3.5wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…a086backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdce7…f553backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x944a…835fbacked No | 59c | 21.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e37…ff97backed No | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ca…e989backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +159.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5e…de2fbacked No | 56c | 19.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4293…9d3ebacked No | 75c | 15.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50eb…d99cbacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95ba…7889backed No | 79c | 13.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.89 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +3.9wins | +0.22per pick | 40cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Houthi strike on Israel by October 15?this page
- Houthi strike on Israel by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.