Middle East · resolved market
Houthi strike on Israel by September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7824c5216a4bc5c02e83ced917cffa56c7bf50bf0cc7f7c14be3363650f3141f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,677
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,240
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,677 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 52c | 1,903$992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$910.88 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02c9…b7cdbacked Yes | 61c | 1,647$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 17c | 1,345$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.76 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 26c | 994.79$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.26 | 147 | 24.5%36 W · 111 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 78c | 854.7$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.78 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed No | 68c | 750$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.01 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 17c | 705.83$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.57 | 194 | 28.9%56 W · 138 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5776…3853backed Yes | 16c | 624.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 22c | 623.79$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.77 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Yes | 19c | 619.81$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.2 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe781…5e52backed No | 71c | 500$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +4.3wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +87.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a5…9de7backed Yes | 26c | 500$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 48c | 430.79$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.06 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bc…026cbacked Yes | 28c | 407.34$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.89 | 99 | 30.3%30 W · 69 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 13c | 392$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.86 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e54…8f1ebacked Yes | 40c | 302.46$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +35%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Yes | 27c | 299.99$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc86a…5a42backed Yes | 44c | 297.56$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 74c | 254.28$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.23 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 12c | 251.78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed No | 60c | 246.11$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 176 | 46.6%82 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3bb…2667backed Yes | 60c | 211.09$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.65 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f49…7458backed Yes | 52c | 209.44$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.22 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 179 | 31.3%56 W · 123 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 53c | 180$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.5 | 160 | 61.9%99 W · 61 L | +9.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 53c | 179.99$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc84…06d8backed Yes | 28c | 176.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd00…e43ebacked Yes | 28c | 175.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b10…d37cbacked Yes | 28c | 165.08$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd061…d5e4backed Yes | 20c | 140$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbe…ccb0backed Yes | 9c | 134$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf5…661dbacked Yes | 21c | 129.52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 145 | 20.7%30 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -40%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0224…292abacked No | 73c | 120$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 19c | 112.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 73c | 109.59$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8227…4b3cbacked Yes | 31c | 106.41$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 14c | 100.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9738backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +6.1wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.74 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 203 | 36.9%75 W · 128 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 194 | 45.9%89 W · 105 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb638…f52abacked No | 55c | 99.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed No | 62c | 99.98$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.99 | 153 | 31.4%48 W · 105 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…20d2backed Yes | 25c | 98.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 69c | 87$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.27 | 272 | 33.8%92 W · 180 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 70c | 80$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 261 | 38.7%101 W · 160 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa591…9079backed No | 66c | 71$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.86 | 69 | 65.2%45 W · 24 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf00a…c77cbacked No | 51c | 67.86$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.45 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 33c | 64.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb39…e932backed Yes | 20c | 60.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 52 | 17.3%9 W · 43 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…4dc7backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 234 | 20.9%49 W · 185 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 64c | 46.79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f40…7598backed Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed No | 59c | 34.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 169 | 61.5%104 W · 65 L | +12.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc75…b64dbacked No | 47c | 33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9e…94cfbacked No | 70c | 27.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +197.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6456…da49backed Yes | 41c | 25.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50b3…dda7backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 72c | 20.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8be…c8d1backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a67…af26backed No | 68c | 19.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…72c0backed No | 68c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Houthi strike on Israel by September 30?this page
- Houthi strike on Israel by October 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.