World Politics · resolved market
Will turnout be between 63% and 66% in the Czech election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d6c87358a0a8522c775c20288ab7df7c8ceb4ffd1abf01881ba343cdf45964f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,641
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,067
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,641 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd188…f605backed Yes | 17c | 710.9$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -5.1wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -53%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 40c | 401.47$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.47 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed Yes | 34c | 400$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 17c | 399.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 247 | 36.8%91 W · 156 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 6c | 244$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 211.45$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.88 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed Yes | 11c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9e…5f7fbacked Yes | 41c | 193.03$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.14 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -45%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 40c | 184.91$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.25 | 199 | 57.3%114 W · 85 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0121…f82cbacked Yes | 6c | 177.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…f218backed No | 64c | 170.66$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.23 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8393…f0aebacked Yes | 39c | 112.66$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.94 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d93…8cbebacked Yes | 39c | 110$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.37 | 169 | 40.2%68 W · 101 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 58c | 101.2$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.39 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff7…87a4backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb3…391dbacked Yes | 42c | 94.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 40c | 80$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a3…a462backed Yes | 39c | 51.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…51acbacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1242…8dfebacked No | 61c | 49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe59…425cbacked Yes | 32c | 46.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 40c | 45.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 200 | 51.5%103 W · 97 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae26…cd58backed Yes | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x405e…7289backed Yes | 40c | 32.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 62c | 19.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 51 | 74.5%38 W · 13 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will turnout be between 63% and 66% in the Czech election?this page
- Will turnout be between 60% and 63% in the Czech election?No won
- Will turnout be between 66% and 69% in the Czech election?Yes won
- Will turnout be less than 60% in the Czech election?No won
- Will turnout be more than 69% in the Czech election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.