Earnings · resolved market
Will Jefferies (JEF) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2b6311d774ff38d03219de5959ad70d1587cfc62bdbe7e566970122b127a0f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,005
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,593
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,005 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 37c | 16,004$5,903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,902.57 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 54c | 4,022$2,172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,850.63 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 46c | 4,000$1,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,840 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 55c | 3,874$2,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,746.19 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Yes | 55c | 2,222$1,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc23b…24f9backed No | 48c | 2,083$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0e…0b82backed Yes | 54c | 1,667$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$766.67 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 55c | 1,499$819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.43 | 330 | 25.2%83 W · 247 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed Yes | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.22per pick | 47cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 5c | 941.23$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.25 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6978…08d8backed Yes | 54c | 832.77$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.33 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked No | 46c | 800$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed Yes | 55c | 700$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.5 | 203 | 31.5%64 W · 139 L | -14.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed No | 21c | 550$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.8 | 122 | 64.8%79 W · 43 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8c94…816fbacked No | 46c | 500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc6…aad8backed Yes | 57c | 457.61$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.6 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9e…5f7fbacked No | 48c | 400$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 47c | 388.9$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.78 | 117 | 23.1%27 W · 90 L | -18.3wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2a…4945backed Yes | 53c | 374.51$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…4deabacked Yes | 55c | 362.77$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.62 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa581…45b2backed No | 46c | 250$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9915…3704backed Yes | 53c | 230.93$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.55 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0b…fb1abacked Yes | 54c | 230$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2945…862ebacked No | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked No | 46c | 207$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.22 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 55c | 200.1$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.05 | 189 | 41.3%78 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x346e…1eb7backed Yes | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed No | 45c | 200$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed No | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5019…ab07backed Yes | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1275…203cbacked No | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0c…6825backed Yes | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0495…c68fbacked Yes | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb071…e8f1backed Yes | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed No | 46c | 180$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.8 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8017…3366backed No | 45c | 125.81$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8298…b978backed No | 42c | 108.39$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…d4d8backed Yes | 58c | 103.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4b…8a81backed No | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…e84dbacked Yes | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +100.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1242…8dfebacked Yes | 56c | 89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.16 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 63cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8654…f382backed Yes | 53c | 84.91$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55d8…0cf5backed No | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 56c | 83.13$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.58 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9d…e31bbacked No | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +106.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6b…fba5backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb72c…653ebacked No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98cc…5fd4backed Yes | 53c | 48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 42c | 47.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0166…607dbacked No | 48c | 45.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x384a…39c0backed No | 47c | 44.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked No | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1506…4f3ebacked Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 70cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d27…4f3cbacked Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60f4…f275backed Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ffa…25f9backed Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d0…f6e0backed No | 48c | 36.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc3…fce2backed Yes | 55c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a2…7f83backed No | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3161…623dbacked No | 46c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 55c | 24.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x419b…0f00backed Yes | 55c | 21.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc60…fdc5backed Yes | 56c | 21.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…78a0backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eee…2782backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 70cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6fa…f4d4backed Yes | 53c | 19.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29e2…fb50backed Yes | 55c | 19.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 59cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f89…c4c3backed Yes | 54c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf42…ec08backed Yes | 54c | 18.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.