Earnings · resolved market
Will Carnival Corporation (CCL) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xafd5a0364fbb3a05d2876a43914e16aac732299d1c10c7e2d9546007bf973458
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,102
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,789
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,102 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 13c | 1,694$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 14c | 1,360$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.06 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 20c | 800.86$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.21 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0e…0b82backed Yes | 79c | 692.25$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.25 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 21c | 588.03$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.25 | 330 | 25.2%83 W · 247 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9e…5f7fbacked No | 21c | 546.12$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.69 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 7c | 389.66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…5d71backed No | 12c | 377.51$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa581…45b2backed No | 15c | 351.01$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.81 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed No | 15c | 301.45$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.72 | 203 | 31.5%64 W · 139 L | -14.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…842fbacked No | 19c | 266.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.53 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed No | 13c | 249.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 82 | 67.1%55 W · 27 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 20c | 230.39$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.08 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 18c | 200.1$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.02 | 189 | 41.3%78 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed No | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1543…b35abacked Yes | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 77cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56bb…5253backed Yes | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a09…cdffbacked Yes | 79c | 126.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 20c | 88.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6978…08d8backed Yes | 78c | 86.18$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c18…9ceabacked No | 22c | 72.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.25per pick | 32cpaid | -91%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f19…3aedbacked Yes | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55d8…0cf5backed Yes | 80c | 50.17$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe161…7854backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…78a0backed No | 21c | 49.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98cc…5fd4backed Yes | 79c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x595e…6c34backed Yes | 79c | 30.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68cb…6032backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39ee…c018backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.