World Politics · resolved market
Will Piráti get between 8% and 11% of the vote in the Czech election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc1ac2450858f015c49752edb6beeb6172d0bd456ef785d3396b79c54373716f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,523
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,283
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,523 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee86…c85fbacked No | 2c | 1,690$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 13c | 999.99$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 123 | 45.5%56 W · 67 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06a2…8015backed Yes | 67c | 477.44$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.44 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 46c | 436.38$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.01 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked Yes | 55c | 350.25$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.82 | 284 | 30.3%86 W · 198 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed Yes | 45c | 150$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 196 | 23%45 W · 151 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9e…5f7fbacked No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -45%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 91.47$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.83 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked No | 35c | 45.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbb…55dbbacked Yes | 65c | 41.71$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7f…26c9backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4317…99d8backed Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Piráti get between 8% and 11% of the vote in the Czech election?this page
- Will Piráti get between 11% and 14% of the vote in the Czech election?No won
- Will Piráti get between 5% and 8% of the vote in the Czech election?No won
- Will Piráti get less than 5% of the vote in the Czech election?No won
- Will Piráti get more than 14% of the vote in the Czech election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.