TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Trump strikes another drug boat by Oct 15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$84,495
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$87,701

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,495 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 160 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes53c3,372$1,793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,579.1541238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe103…59fdbacked Yes37c2,618$978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,640.034951%25 W · 24 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ad2…54bdbacked Yes38c2,347$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,446.513100%3 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+402.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed No58c2,344$1,351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,350.6817633%58 W · 118 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-42.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e20…04e2backed No58c2,235$1,287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,287.5728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-42%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdba5…8d60backed No57c2,084$1,188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,187.9250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes36c1,998$714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,284.1299629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9c70…f9e1backed Yes41c1,876$774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,102.82425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-39.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfeec…aa69backed Yes61c1,788$1,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$697.28475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+29.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x993f…3ee3backed No75c1,341$1,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,009.672951.7%15 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-0.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed No11c1,272$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.9211120.7%23 W · 88 L+10.9wins+0.10per pick11cpaid+212.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2fc0…843dbacked Yes49c1,160$564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$595.68837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick51cpaid+39.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe427…4c44backed Yes35c1,146$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$745.59955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.16per pick39cpaid+47.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No36c1,122$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.1835519.7%70 W · 285 L-16.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb920…83c0backed Yes48c1,018$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532.3250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd38d…5895backed Yes46c971.68$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521.681145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed No52c951.32$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.7616144.7%72 W · 89 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed No65c943.45$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$612.117452.9%92 W · 82 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9eea…281dbacked No20c889.16$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.047638.2%29 W · 47 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-9.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5893…6835backed Yes36c885.8$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$569.27425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-30%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbac1…ce0ebacked No58c856.9$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5004332.6%14 W · 29 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-41.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7678…e5f0backed No45c815.3$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.133542.9%15 W · 20 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+48.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f07…b0d3backed No78c767.98$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602.18366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick75cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x141c…7154backed No37c687.79$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.486838.2%26 W · 42 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa7df…62efbacked No45c673.26$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002334.8%8 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfb5…7d2dbacked No72c653.86$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4704047.5%19 W · 21 L-4.3wins-0.11per pick58cpaid-28.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe33b…e067backed Yes75c625.21$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.77250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7cc9…b8a8backed Yes44c549.98$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.494323.3%10 W · 33 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf661…d170backed No52c541.59$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.18862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+23.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d4b…5d89backed No38c526.32$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+19.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes66c510$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.912545.6%57 W · 68 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed Yes53c501.41$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.668632.6%28 W · 58 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd8bf…8ecebacked No3c500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.18per pick31cpaid-68.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x57b0…76f4backed No36c499.57$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.366241.9%26 W · 36 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes44c486.19$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.8856733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcd96…cbdcbacked No46c482.96$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.072425%6 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-53.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88b0…693fbacked Yes27c459.97$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.788847.7%42 W · 46 L+10.8wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+32.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1d9e…716ebacked No46c434.78$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick61cpaid-52%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked Yes60c433$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.22755.6%15 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick49cpaid-10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes64c400$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14669634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2759…09bfbacked Yes27c400$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-38.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes33c392.32$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.612123.8%5 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick20cpaid-45.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67e6…cb15backed No39c385.57$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501040%4 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-35%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1f49…7458backed No65c384.55$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-38%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes56c354.48$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.4813341.4%55 W · 78 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb760…ccd7backed Yes63c352.17$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.51855.6%10 W · 8 L+3.1wins+0.17per pick38cpaid+53.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf0d8…68cabacked Yes45c300.26$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.14580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick52cpaid+34.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe30e…8edfbacked No48c299.79$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.64250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+48%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes64c285.15$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.621,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0fe1…da7cbacked No37c272.8$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-47.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked Yes35c269.98$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.0823543.8%103 W · 132 L-6.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x72a1…b63dbacked No38c263.16$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004235.7%15 W · 27 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-33.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2be…66b0backed No38c250$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$953036.7%11 W · 19 L-3.0wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-30.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6714…b0b1backed No38c250$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-58.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e73…6697backed Yes39c244.23$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.9819348.2%93 W · 100 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e45…3662backed No75c220.84$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165955.6%5 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick67cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8662…c94fbacked Yes46c211.99$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.073026.7%8 W · 22 L+3.7wins+0.12per pick14cpaid+25.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf4fc…a861backed Yes27c210$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.33100%3 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+202.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7856…411cbacked Yes38c209.98$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.891154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2941…3accbacked No39c200$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf5e…4168backed No34c200$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$682025%5 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-31.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3998…686dbacked No53c200$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10630%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc894…b9f6backed No5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-17.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x11f3…d859backed Yes23c199.99$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.993948.7%19 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc74…216cbacked No76c196.65$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.45922.2%2 W · 7 L-3.9wins-0.43per pick65cpaid-67.8%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x6e8b…e99fbacked No49c182.35$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.922450%12 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac95…df88backed Yes40c181.49$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.15742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-20.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe809…039bbacked Yes47c180$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.42941.4%12 W · 17 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick34cpaid-9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes28c175.66$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.664226.2%11 W · 31 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-49.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xebcc…a426backed No39c174.36$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ebd…bc27backed No66c167.53$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a54…64e0backed No61c163.3$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-43.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34a…6007backed No42c162.46$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.615759.6%34 W · 23 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xec76…f9f1backed No59c159.05$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.545955.9%33 W · 26 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes20c150$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12013714.6%20 W · 117 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-30.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d89…340cbacked No51c146.25$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.972536%9 W · 16 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked No57c143.07$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.3533313.2%44 W · 289 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked Yes27c143$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10513138.9%51 W · 80 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fd8…01f0backed Yes36c140$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.62231.8%7 W · 15 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-1.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb0ed…c3aabacked No75c137.34$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.23333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-51.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4041…6f52backed No38c133.3$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.21742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick32cpaid+269%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x39ff…d637backed No76c131.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100825%2 W · 6 L-2.6wins-0.33per pick58cpaid-56.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes26c122.38$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.9896319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8706…0587backed No58c122$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.022853.6%15 W · 13 L+3.3wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+46.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb3d7…7504backed No68c117.6$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801540%6 W · 9 L-3.0wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-36.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x022a…2da6backed Yes36c111.11$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.11875%6 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+34.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3e6…1e34backed No77c109.4$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.24333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick64cpaid-29.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e9e…5f7fbacked Yes50c102.3$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.583164.5%20 W · 11 L+3.8wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+23.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x588c…1bf4backed No39c101.36$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.533129%9 W · 22 L-6.5wins-0.21per pick50cpaid-58.7%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x2843…b3d2backed Yes50c100.49$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.8112839.8%51 W · 77 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes64c100$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.0831840.3%128 W · 190 L-9.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-26%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x581d…b2e3backed Yes41c100$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$596256.5%35 W · 27 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xef9f…216bbacked Yes40c100$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick34cpaid+19.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1a44…5e33backed No58c100$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581838.9%7 W · 11 L-2.5wins-0.14per pick53cpaid-29.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x31d0…7f0fbacked No61c100$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61757.1%4 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a0d…ff14backed No64c100$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-19.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ed1…dc95backed No34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341040%4 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick61cpaid-33.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbdf7…65d9backed Yes47c98.3$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.944949%24 W · 25 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0faf…d0d9backed Yes54c92.59$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.591833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-32.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7bb3…b498backed No69c86.55$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-36.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.