Middle East · resolved market
Odds of Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31 over 50% by January 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9dd2d3e59795162e8eb7ad3b945c790414676277e8f4a0e11cf131e96388f91
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $513,452
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $442,924
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $513,452 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 209 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x34d2…75a8backed Yes | 7c | 31,796$2,226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,225.71 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b00…7765backed Yes | 4c | 30,008$1,258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,258 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0faf…ca6abacked Yes | 8c | 19,310$1,592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,591.97 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 11c | 14,746$1,664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,664.29 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdec1…28bdbacked Yes | 3c | 12,485$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6d…9f36backed Yes | 13c | 11,954$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebde…ed49backed Yes | 8c | 11,864$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked Yes | 5c | 11,597$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.88 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | +10.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6fca…05bcbacked Yes | 12c | 11,140$1,295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,294.61 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe976…68d1backed Yes | 9c | 8,996$789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$789.39 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae4…bdfebacked Yes | 11c | 8,512$905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$905.12 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67d6…245ebacked Yes | 13c | 7,854$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,044.54 | 79 | 29.1%23 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 7c | 6,693$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.51 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -44%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa64…a43dbacked Yes | 9c | 5,995$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.03 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…604ebacked Yes | 8c | 5,695$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.27 | 78 | 20.5%16 W · 62 L | -11.5wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x90ed…b5bcbacked Yes | 5c | 5,422$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.19 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +16%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3df…6f87backed Yes | 7c | 4,959$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.94 | 73 | 11%8 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c5…8732backed Yes | 12c | 4,910$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.76 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c51…f8febacked Yes | 1c | 4,100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.55 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4854…0887backed Yes | 12c | 3,600$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5763…1c22backed Yes | 7c | 3,592$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.43 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -67%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 11c | 3,380$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.45 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 3,110$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.84 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90d1…f62abacked Yes | 6c | 3,070$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.73 | 72 | 0%0 W · 72 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked Yes | 8c | 3,000$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0224…292abacked No | 80c | 2,996$2,391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.95 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03a8…58cfbacked Yes | 4c | 2,855$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16a…b564backed Yes | 8c | 2,807$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.46 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x467f…b1dbbacked Yes | 12c | 2,647$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.81 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x38d9…a783backed Yes | 8c | 2,645$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…357dbacked Yes | 16c | 2,590$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.21per pick | 33cpaid | +23%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc51…9aa4backed Yes | 19c | 2,580$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b6…342bbacked Yes | 15c | 2,579$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.64 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 8c | 2,550$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.62 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6d…6c4dbacked Yes | 4c | 2,482$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.11 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c21…e775backed Yes | 14c | 2,451$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +60%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…c9e3backed Yes | 8c | 2,406$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2360…28cdbacked Yes | 13c | 2,359$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8f…8001backed Yes | 10c | 2,323$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 7c | 2,318$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.07 | 143 | 0.7%1 W · 142 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -92.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 7c | 2,270$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.1 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 2,190$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.25 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5260…fd71backed Yes | 13c | 2,159$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.78 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 10c | 2,156$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.97 | 150 | 23.3%35 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04db…a2dcbacked Yes | 23c | 2,010$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.52 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8636…9cf7backed Yes | 8c | 2,007$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…932cbacked Yes | 14c | 2,001$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.06 | 112 | 8.9%10 W · 102 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +149.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 12c | 2,000$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.4 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 7c | 1,929$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.99 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…c417backed Yes | 7c | 1,558$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.04 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 8c | 1,526$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.03 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 14c | 1,508$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.59 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8df5…e945backed Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce2a…d53abacked Yes | 1c | 1,250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ff…d936backed Yes | 8c | 1,207$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f74…42aabacked Yes | 9c | 1,140$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c4…4c8bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,134$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 90 | 28.9%26 W · 64 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefef…a823backed Yes | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bed…3af1backed Yes | 6c | 1,108$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 7c | 1,103$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.93 | 69 | 4.3%3 W · 66 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,101$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.19 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x431a…6984backed Yes | 5c | 1,084$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03d1…ffaabacked Yes | 19c | 1,057$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +5.7wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1df7…0ce6backed Yes | 5c | 1,038$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 7c | 1,030$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.79 | 83 | 6%5 W · 78 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3493…47bcbacked Yes | 9c | 1,030$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.99 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 12c | 972.56$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.31 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 9c | 961.9$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.57 | 225 | 29.8%67 W · 158 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddf6…16aabacked Yes | 2c | 901.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 12c | 900$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.56 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54e4…70b0backed Yes | 11c | 894.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb43b…fa32backed Yes | 10c | 861.11$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfc…e7d6backed Yes | 6c | 833.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…bc70backed Yes | 12c | 833.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ab…daccbacked Yes | 6c | 833.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…1f4ebacked Yes | 6c | 833.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x677f…c336backed Yes | 8c | 825$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 41cpaid | +27%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…73dbbacked Yes | 7c | 813.71$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.96 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 3c | 740.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 76 | 11.8%9 W · 67 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0e…bbdebacked Yes | 13c | 722.12$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.38 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ab…ec95backed Yes | 18c | 717.37$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.94 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 5c | 700.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.21 | 197 | 6.6%13 W · 184 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed Yes | 4c | 682.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 79 | 38%30 W · 49 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 14c | 677.74$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.9 | 114 | 24.6%28 W · 86 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 10c | 668.95$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.57 | 140 | 36.4%51 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 6c | 663.11$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.9 | 72 | 6.9%5 W · 67 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb23c…10febacked Yes | 7c | 649.42$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f10…3736backed Yes | 8c | 648.85$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d91…89d8backed No | 76c | 634$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.16 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b79…47e6backed No | 79c | 627.47$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.47 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd057…e87fbacked Yes | 7c | 625.33$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd477…12b4backed Yes | 8c | 625.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Yes | 7c | 617.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.48 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61a3…b1e5backed Yes | 3c | 584.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 7c | 580.51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.88 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe57f…1566backed Yes | 6c | 578.64$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x426c…c0a5backed Yes | 7c | 569.66$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfa…4578backed Yes | 24c | 569$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…ce87backed Yes | 14c | 547.76$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.45 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +7.7wins | +0.16per pick | 21cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x66c6…2e13backed Yes | 11c | 545.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.