TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$70,748
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$72,755

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,748 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x955c…990fbacked Yes66c9,557$6,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,268.897157.7%41 W · 30 L+5.2wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+29.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No41c5,667$2,306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,306.318225.6%21 W · 61 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-52.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f92…2c2dbacked Yes17c5,407$920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,487.22229.1%2 W · 20 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick21cpaid-66.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No42c2,107$894 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$894.116737.1%62 W · 105 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-37.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x304e…be98backed Yes27c2,015$553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,462.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+264.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x033d…af05backed Yes76c2,000$1,521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.2213150.4%66 W · 65 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+18.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d89…5382backed No60c1,854$1,104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,103.8670%0 W · 7 L-2.6wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No23c1,722$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.210339.8%41 W · 62 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-31.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes62c1,600$998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$602.2215149%74 W · 77 L+10.6wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+1.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No50c1,263$631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630.774843.8%21 W · 27 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-31%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No3c834.64$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.22013.5%7 W · 194 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-47.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33b3…d03dbacked Yes79c811.06$638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.93714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick30cpaid-81.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf59…deb0backed No35c791.91$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.0530%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No22c791.35$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.067537.3%28 W · 47 L-5.1wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-42.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x453c…ae42backed Yes69c750.25$516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.611250%6 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-22.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No12c720.3$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.311,3938%111 W · 1,282 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No13c634.88$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.3911129.7%33 W · 78 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No31c631.95$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.1812442.7%53 W · 71 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-30.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf6d2…7048backed No14c621.97$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.0770%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No75c617.67$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.274429.5%13 W · 31 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-45.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1f4…dd7cbacked Yes65c575$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No71c497.75$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.73545.7%16 W · 19 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-25.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x755d…6accbacked No35c459.99$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.756331.7%20 W · 43 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-18.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb78…e180backed Yes70c428.77$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.774100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+59.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No33c401.48$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.055339.6%21 W · 32 L-6.8wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-40.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3054…1282backed No13c399.99$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.891136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-29.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No44c385.89$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.485147.1%24 W · 27 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-26.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1787…58c2backed No16c353.3$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.2920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No51c350.1$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.3810436.5%38 W · 66 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-40.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes57c326.67$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.1110042%42 W · 58 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23cb…0357backed No32c317.78$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.21258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No55c315.97$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.958653.5%46 W · 40 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e8e…8db8backed Yes65c300$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.14663%29 W · 17 L+6.6wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+25%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No62c287.64$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.9536538.1%139 W · 226 L-19.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No20c275.35$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.838638.4%33 W · 53 L-6.5wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-16.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5260…fd71backed Yes63c229.39$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+57.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No20c222$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.3610645.3%48 W · 58 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-26.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No51c207.99$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.748442.9%36 W · 48 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-30.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes66c200$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.847328.3%134 W · 339 L-32.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-38.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No7c200$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.072042.9%6 W · 198 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-51.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbacf…0ba0backed Yes24c200$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick7cpaid-30.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2892…71ddbacked Yes35c190.91$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.4519532.8%64 W · 131 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f99…6734backed Yes6c190$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.861353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+120.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes68c182.13$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.281030%3 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-57.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No13c162.45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3616015.6%25 W · 135 L-26.1wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-70.7%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No12c156.23$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.041549.7%15 W · 139 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cd1…9c20backed Yes38c150$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.037627.6%21 W · 55 L-6.9wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-43%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No32c146.72$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5911924.4%29 W · 90 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-45.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xecd3…8289backed Yes70c143.04$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.042100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked No58c139.09$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.229244.6%41 W · 51 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8575…87febacked No38c128.55$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.382142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b1a…4c96backed Yes71c126.52$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.79757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No35c125$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.156747.8%32 W · 35 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5566…7c29backed No31c119$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.982445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No64c116.95$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.643046.7%14 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19e7…0dddbacked Yes50c115.07$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.33250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No40c114.92$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.241,21817.8%217 W · 1,001 L-124.0wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-50.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No58c106$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.753246.9%15 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed Yes75c101.87$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.4818746%86 W · 101 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-20%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x369c…eab1backed No62c100.01$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.3220%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x06d4…8264backed Yes71c100$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.22100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x84d7…8c5bbacked Yes73c98.03$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.91145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-18.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86e9…4cdfbacked Yes65c94.75$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.16650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-20.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c8a…a4a5backed No13c94.11$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9480…a200backed Yes57c87.18$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+74.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd04…a64abacked Yes64c77.89$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.892100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+48.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No26c75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.784748.9%23 W · 24 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbb0…bd65backed No37c66.14$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.321838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeec5…b6febacked No43c65.86$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.021838.9%7 W · 11 L-2.6wins-0.14per pick53cpaid-47.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7dc9…525ebacked No32c62.93$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9320%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b1c…d8a9backed Yes65c60$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+52.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No55c57$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.243158.1%18 W · 13 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-11%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d68…4b92backed Yes75c57$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.22250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-33.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No69c56.61$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.924436.4%16 W · 28 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-42.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No41c56.47$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.983542.9%15 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-35.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1c5…4fc9backed Yes38c50.63$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.3250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+31%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes59c46.12$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.845234.6%18 W · 34 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-45.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0446…cc69backed No42c40.56$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0115…ac79backed Yes80c37.19$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.513100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3ba…33b9backed Yes42c34$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.721580%12 W · 3 L+3.7wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+46.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x680a…0a15backed Yes74c32.31$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No54c32$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.226446.9%30 W · 34 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-26.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No63c31.21$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.533545.7%16 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-35.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes70c30.09$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.0511184.7%94 W · 17 L+11.3wins+0.10per pick74cpaid+13.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x605e…8b39backed No55c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.35650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No77c25.4$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.543557.1%20 W · 15 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b43…33cebacked No64c24.8$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.777969.6%55 W · 24 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x87b9…b193backed Yes61c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.85100%5 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+43.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No75c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0411240.2%45 W · 67 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dec…cefabacked Yes75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.95042%21 W · 29 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-24.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa76b…8a50backed Yes65c18.38$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.36933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-40.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd8dd…9b5abacked Yes74c17.76$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.651250%6 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-20.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c5d…1c8dbacked Yes64c17$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7821…9855backed No63c16$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x371d…b39abacked Yes79c15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.16250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-36.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0efc…2996backed Yes76c13.76$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.