Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71e764031977beef0ad0678fc53663c7dc467051350eba803a42dd26d038a344
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Downof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $83,360
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $82,196
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,360 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9c1…4ebbbacked Down | 46c | 7,129$3,279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,849.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 45cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa98…90bbbacked Down | 63c | 3,972$2,484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,488.71 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca6…73e3backed Up | 2c | 3,876$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.78 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked Down | 22c | 2,248$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,752.76 | 307 | 38.8%119 W · 188 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fdecbacked Up | 44c | 2,000$884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$884 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Up | 72c | 1,400$1,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,006.99 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f2…0ff7backed Up | 6c | 1,379$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 112 | 12.5%14 W · 98 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedcc…4d5ebacked Up | 6c | 1,331$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.36 | 152 | 21.7%33 W · 119 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf64…bf7dbacked Up | 31c | 754.09$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.4 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06d6…44bcbacked Up | 47c | 738.67$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.05 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6aac…9603backed Down | 49c | 673.57$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.31 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b8…0d21backed Down | 30c | 668.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.94 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc8…adf7backed Down | 48c | 593.42$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.68 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x269e…4dcbbacked Down | 42c | 569.26$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.68 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +46%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfd…0029backed Down | 47c | 500$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02fa…d979backed Down | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36ac…df97backed Up | 16c | 500$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.9 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82af…f7d1backed Down | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1c…c41ebacked Up | 43c | 497.53$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…6872backed Down | 50c | 430$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 79 | 60.8%48 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe252…5f5abacked Up | 51c | 400$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a17…8df6backed Down | 48c | 400$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Up | 50c | 380.84$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.17 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c55…3408backed Up | 43c | 379.83$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c15…5b4bbacked Up | 39c | 344.22$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4867…a6f8backed Up | 54c | 331.62$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.07 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4a…8a46backed Down | 53c | 281.85$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.85 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | -11.3wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f45…a77abacked Down | 57c | 264.17$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.8 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Down | 36c | 237.26$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.49 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Down | 75c | 233.33$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.33 | 38 | 84.2%32 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb17e…22bebacked Up | 80c | 222$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Down | 45c | 209.15$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.12 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1db2…dacabacked Down | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfccc…b157backed Up | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafa6…a78bbacked Down | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +3.3wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +117.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ff…3fcdbacked Up | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 49cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd71c…20b3backed Up | 53c | 199.51$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.74 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Down | 20c | 175$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06ce…0b8bbacked Down | 28c | 145$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.4 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1172…9b72backed Up | 29c | 140$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e29…a4a0backed Down | 61c | 118.62$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.91 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb41c…5bd3backed Up | 40c | 110$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.59 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Up | 43c | 108.05$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.39 | 365 | 50.4%184 W · 181 L | +15.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6af3…2360backed Down | 55c | 102.7$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.22 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc581…6d06backed Up | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…a963backed Down | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +96.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47a6…65e8backed Up | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42bb…82b6backed Down | 44c | 96.2$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +126.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba77…be8bbacked Up | 28c | 94.34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed Up | 42c | 81.55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb66…93ddbacked Down | 44c | 80$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dc…12ecbacked Down | 46c | 78.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.57 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…c3bcbacked Down | 40c | 74.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.63 | 117 | 36.8%43 W · 74 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x566c…3d03backed Down | 34c | 58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.01 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…d47cbacked Up | 49c | 55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -5.1wins | -0.22per pick | 44cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Down | 39c | 52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.72 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | -6.9wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x91e5…0947backed Down | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1788…6c66backed Up | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…d178backed Up | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44d3…f4ffbacked Down | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x211f…8e0fbacked Down | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Down | 54c | 31.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5260…fd71backed Down | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c5…787cbacked Down | 60c | 18.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.