Tennis · resolved market
Wimbledon: Alcaraz vs. Sinner – Over 40.5 Games?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21875d2cc3c7066a2df5ffefe95f784a851ada25af6f54de2da5d2dab7080cf0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,185
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,910
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,185 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7833…1c0bbacked Yes | 58c | 12,002$7,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,009 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed No | 48c | 9,568$4,612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,955.8 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 42c | 9,281$3,923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,358.75 | 158 | 32.9%52 W · 106 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8406…0176backed Yes | 59c | 5,150$3,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,044.5 | 106 | 54.7%58 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed No | 41c | 5,050$2,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,979.5 | 527 | 44.6%235 W · 292 L | +30.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3210…5c4ebacked Yes | 58c | 5,029$2,931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,930.89 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Yes | 65c | 4,699$3,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,055.93 | 595 | 53.8%320 W · 275 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…5ed9backed No | 42c | 4,238$1,780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,458.06 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a14…e79fbacked No | 44c | 2,967$1,305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,661.49 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x383d…a9f2backed Yes | 57c | 2,966$1,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,680.28 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…ec2fbacked No | 42c | 2,750$1,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,594.73 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab4d…6546backed Yes | 1c | 2,209$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 23cpaid | +98.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d5c…7d29backed Yes | 58c | 1,723$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 41c | 1,712$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,007.27 | 316 | 50%158 W · 158 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked No | 39c | 1,500$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$910 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 58c | 1,450$838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$838.23 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b2…841cbacked No | 20c | 1,279$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,023.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x517f…74aebacked Yes | 61c | 1,264$767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$766.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22fc…b7dcbacked Yes | 60c | 833.33$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc559…ac69backed Yes | 60c | 750$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x101c…4392backed Yes | 54c | 693.5$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.43 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad94…85b1backed No | 42c | 678.43$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.86 | 122 | 31.1%38 W · 84 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked No | 43c | 584$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.88 | 257 | 22.2%57 W · 200 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Yes | 57c | 565.64$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.54 | 949 | 40.1%381 W · 568 L | +30.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa486…25d4backed No | 20c | 500$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +11.3wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +417.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 58c | 431.03$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f36…4e9cbacked Yes | 58c | 428.81$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed No | 36c | 356.3$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.8 | 173 | 49.1%85 W · 88 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed No | 41c | 350$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 161 | 40.4%65 W · 96 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0b…3f0bbacked No | 44c | 291.86$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.52 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f72…9a74backed Yes | 38c | 250$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked No | 37c | 247$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.61 | 132 | 45.5%60 W · 72 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed95…b1e6backed Yes | 62c | 246.85$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb7…04d8backed Yes | 60c | 243.33$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 141 | 40.4%57 W · 84 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe06…d5d5backed No | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.1 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf07b…60a3backed Yes | 60c | 233.7$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca7…ed82backed No | 45c | 217.34$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.28 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed No | 43c | 209.73$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.79 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…637bbacked Yes | 63c | 206.35$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb32e…a46abacked Yes | 57c | 201.1$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.63 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed No | 51c | 200.34$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.27 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd244…550bbacked Yes | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4790…2dd7backed Yes | 59c | 171.41$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.13 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e17…e4d4backed Yes | 62c | 134.67$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.84 | 159 | 61%97 W · 62 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x854d…8ffebacked No | 43c | 128.56$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb0…8826backed Yes | 59c | 111.58$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -6.6wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed Yes | 20c | 110$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 708 | 57.5%407 W · 301 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a8f…2295backed Yes | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked No | 43c | 100.86$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.49 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe283…7190backed Yes | 58c | 100.6$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.35 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb902…1dd3backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa19…fb67backed No | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed No | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.8 | 204 | 31.4%64 W · 140 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 55c | 99.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e42…b020backed Yes | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22f9…d8abbacked No | 49c | 80.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.82 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8479…1410backed Yes | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b98…aa35backed Yes | 65c | 69.01$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba9…b683backed No | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06af…3741backed Yes | 63c | 59.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked No | 57c | 59$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 40c | 50.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.12 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf735…6157backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c6c…7b2ebacked Yes | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c54…cc1ebacked Yes | 57c | 46.49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcea…e78bbacked Yes | 67c | 45.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a67…af26backed Yes | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 70cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e6…67b5backed Yes | 63c | 40.77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0edd…3db1backed Yes | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef7…bd03backed No | 43c | 37.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb96…cd51backed Yes | 64c | 35.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeae4…2e84backed Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 47c | 33.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbffd…0c63backed Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x063c…de6abacked Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d5…5dcbbacked Yes | 55c | 31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6155…0dd4backed Yes | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea1e…fec3backed Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed No | 46c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…1448backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 95 | 70.5%67 W · 28 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.