Movies · resolved market
Will "Freakier Friday" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $29m and $34m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x263b15d151c8a19842788eb6632ca240e750edea42a9f0bd0c94cddc81c8a4aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $128,505
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $124,954
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $128,505 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0ced…12b2backed Yes | 77c | 11,000$8,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,480 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…ebe8backed Yes | 22c | 9,489$2,093 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,092.88 | 72 | 6.9%5 W · 67 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5115…b61dbacked Yes | 3c | 7,000$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.94 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9804…6896backed No | 26c | 6,741$1,727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,013.91 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +88.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…4447backed No | 73c | 6,741$4,944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,796.96 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 15c | 6,722$1,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,002.99 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dc…7416backed Yes | 0c | 6,111$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb10b…ec5ebacked Yes | 65c | 3,886$2,526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,526.09 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -58%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked Yes | 4c | 3,748$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.25 | 121 | 4.1%5 W · 116 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -85%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaec2…cb66backed Yes | 37c | 3,179$1,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,160.59 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -60%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 51c | 3,125$1,605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,604.94 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 36c | 3,008$1,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,095.17 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,766$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x955c…990fbacked No | 76c | 2,562$1,957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.79 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 57c | 2,375$1,348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,348.33 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x520d…babebacked Yes | 68c | 2,118$1,431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,431.1 | 113 | 52.2%59 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed No | 39c | 2,102$818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,283.03 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x08a8…3b8fbacked Yes | 38c | 1,635$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcefc…a993backed Yes | 25c | 1,611$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71a9…2228backed Yes | 8c | 1,420$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.3 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc745…b952backed Yes | 27c | 1,187$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.3 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4986…8bc9backed Yes | 70c | 1,152$803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$803.04 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc178…35b3backed No | 52c | 1,150$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.85 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +136.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9e0e…fdb4backed Yes | 65c | 935.22$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.46 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…d8ccbacked No | 30c | 923.55$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.5 | 160 | 40%64 W · 96 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed No | 52c | 759.77$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.4 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c67…8b76backed Yes | 10c | 722.69$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.15 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6533…46d4backed Yes | 22c | 717.39$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb933…fb0abacked Yes | 39c | 704.14$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.47 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 60c | 688.74$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.41 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes | 45c | 663.49$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.57 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 48c | 636.66$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.62 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a11…6df2backed No | 42c | 497.01$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.73 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 18c | 491.01$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.66 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6f…7e67backed No | 44c | 446.6$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.96 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes | 52c | 440$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 103 | 31.1%32 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6395…6735backed Yes | 6c | 399.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe7…324dbacked Yes | 71c | 364.66$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 89 | 30.3%27 W · 62 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…d0dabacked Yes | 68c | 360$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.64 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d9…56d7backed Yes | 31c | 332.85$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 79c | 316$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.36 | 59 | 11.9%7 W · 52 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 59c | 300$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 74c | 300$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa70…8f17backed Yes | 22c | 300$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed Yes | 61c | 264.79$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.85 | 42 | 4.8%2 W · 40 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3479…f2bdbacked Yes | 70c | 247.16$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.01 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfae3…5228backed Yes | 42c | 240.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 34c | 237.57$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.38 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5b…b598backed Yes | 29c | 230.85$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.7 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0db9…d97cbacked Yes | 55c | 199.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.79 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89d7…3fabbacked Yes | 52c | 191.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.77 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49b4…1b24backed No | 47c | 184.38$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +111.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8049…b09dbacked Yes | 55c | 180.07$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc288…edb1backed No | 57c | 175.07$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.07 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c5…b081backed Yes | 39c | 174$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.05 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc707…bd1fbacked Yes | 56c | 172.93$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.09 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x978d…5eddbacked Yes | 32c | 164$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.19 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3688…a354backed Yes | 16c | 158.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 54c | 150$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.5 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0224…c8aabacked Yes | 70c | 142.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x882d…82bfbacked Yes | 68c | 129.91$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 42c | 112.46$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.16 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf830…3437backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8f…3c8abacked No | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec41…1134backed Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a01…6397backed Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 92.19$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked Yes | 56c | 85$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed95…b1e6backed Yes | 61c | 80.23$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.23 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc21…9eb9backed Yes | 78c | 80$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e70…a586backed Yes | 24c | 64.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bec…56d0backed Yes | 55c | 63.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc389…ee0cbacked Yes | 31c | 61.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d8d…c69ebacked Yes | 58c | 60.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 56c | 57.22$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 70c | 56$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…e6f1backed Yes | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…b234backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +202.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0931…8636backed Yes | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…1acdbacked Yes | 55c | 49.61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 41c | 47.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 192 | 40.6%78 W · 114 L | -20.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 24c | 42.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd0…550abacked Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b66…803cbacked Yes | 74c | 37.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9855…ac9bbacked Yes | 48c | 35.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.25per pick | 41cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x79ae…b9ffbacked Yes | 60c | 26.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -40%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 49c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 56c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…52fbbacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 122 | 40.2%49 W · 73 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Yes | 69c | 15.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Freakier Friday" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $29m and $34m?this page
- Will "Freakier Friday" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $34m and $39m?No won
- Will "Freakier Friday" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $29m?Yes won
- Will "Freakier Friday" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $39m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.