TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Freakier Friday" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $29m and $34m?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$128,505
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$124,954

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $128,505 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0ced…12b2backed Yes77c11,000$8,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,480250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x179e…ebe8backed Yes22c9,489$2,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,092.88726.9%5 W · 67 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-39.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5115…b61dbacked Yes3c7,000$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.94128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-89.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9804…6896backed No26c6,741$1,727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,013.912445.8%11 W · 13 L+2.9wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+88.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x53a4…4447backed No73c6,741$4,944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,796.9612451.6%64 W · 60 L+10.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x682d…4cd6backed Yes15c6,722$1,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,002.9932814.9%49 W · 279 L+14.2wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-59.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8dc…7416backed Yes0c6,111$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick14cpaid-43%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb10b…ec5ebacked Yes65c3,886$2,526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,526.093716.2%6 W · 31 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-58%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9739…159fbacked Yes4c3,748$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.251214.1%5 W · 116 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-85%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaec2…cb66backed Yes37c3,179$1,161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,160.59520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-60%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes51c3,125$1,605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,604.9416350.3%82 W · 81 L+24.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+23.5%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x6ffb…a834backed Yes36c3,008$1,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,095.176132.8%20 W · 41 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c2,766$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.131,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x955c…990fbacked No76c2,562$1,957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$604.797157.7%41 W · 30 L+5.2wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+29.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes57c2,375$1,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,348.3332739.1%128 W · 199 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x520d…babebacked Yes68c2,118$1,431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,431.111352.2%59 W · 54 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f11…ddc4backed No39c2,102$818 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,283.0315059.3%89 W · 61 L+19.8wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+24.6%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x08a8…3b8fbacked Yes38c1,635$621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$621922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-62.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcefc…a993backed Yes25c1,611$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4052556%14 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71a9…2228backed Yes8c1,420$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.350%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc745…b952backed Yes27c1,187$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.32729.6%8 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick30cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4986…8bc9backed Yes70c1,152$803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803.042552%13 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-19.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc178…35b3backed No52c1,150$599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$550.855100%5 W · 0 L+2.6wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+136.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9e0e…fdb4backed Yes65c935.22$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.46650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8247…d8ccbacked No30c923.55$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$643.516040%64 W · 96 L+8.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-19.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9afd…3028backed No52c759.77$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.41233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-47.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c67…8b76backed Yes10c722.69$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.157030%21 W · 49 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6533…46d4backed Yes22c717.39$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb933…fb0abacked Yes39c704.14$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.472941.4%12 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-29.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed No60c688.74$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.4120049.5%99 W · 101 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes45c663.49$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.576426.6%17 W · 47 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-49.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes48c636.66$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.6250633.4%169 W · 337 L-30.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3a11…6df2backed No42c497.01$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.732433.3%8 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-36.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed No18c491.01$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.661216.7%2 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick8cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa6f…7e67backed No44c446.6$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.961346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid+35.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes52c440$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23010331.1%32 W · 71 L+0.5wins0.00per pick31cpaid-31.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6395…6735backed Yes6c399.9$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242556%14 W · 11 L+2.9wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+6.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdfe7…324dbacked Yes71c364.66$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2608930.3%27 W · 62 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-16.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ef2…d0dabacked Yes68c360$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.642917.2%5 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-69.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2d9…56d7backed Yes31c332.85$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed No79c316$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.365911.9%7 W · 52 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-78.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed Yes59c300$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17714530.3%44 W · 101 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-29.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Yes74c300$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2221435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-19.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa70…8f17backed Yes22c300$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-64.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a3f…e333backed Yes61c264.79$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.85424.8%2 W · 40 L-4.4wins-0.10per pick15cpaid-33.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3479…f2bdbacked Yes70c247.16$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.011526.7%4 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick26cpaid+6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfae3…5228backed Yes42c240.65$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003925.6%10 W · 29 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick30cpaid+23.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes34c237.57$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.3867232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f5b…b598backed Yes29c230.85$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.78536.5%31 W · 54 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8a9…2948backed Yes28c200$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5614425.7%37 W · 107 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick22cpaid-15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0db9…d97cbacked Yes55c199.99$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.793336.4%12 W · 21 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89d7…3fabbacked Yes52c191.87$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.771464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick55cpaid-1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x49b4…1b24backed No47c184.38$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+111.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8049…b09dbacked Yes55c180.07$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.550%0 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc288…edb1backed No57c175.07$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.07366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+17%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37c5…b081backed Yes39c174$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.059441.5%39 W · 55 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc707…bd1fbacked Yes56c172.93$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.091346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-27.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x978d…5eddbacked Yes32c164$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.193426.5%9 W · 25 L-3.3wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-48.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3688…a354backed Yes16c158.32$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9128.3%1 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.16per pick25cpaid-76.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes54c150$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.56222.6%14 W · 48 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-39.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0224…c8aabacked Yes70c142.32$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x882d…82bfbacked Yes68c129.91$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.3420%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes42c112.46$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.164337.2%16 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid+42.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf830…3437backed Yes22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d8f…3c8abacked No47c100$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532653.8%14 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec41…1134backed Yes67c100$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.51145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-23%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a01…6397backed Yes69c100$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$694553.3%24 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No56c92.19$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.5687033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7656…194bbacked Yes56c85$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.24736.2%17 W · 30 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-29.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed95…b1e6backed Yes61c80.23$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.233225%8 W · 24 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-55.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfc21…9eb9backed Yes78c80$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e70…a586backed Yes24c64.29$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4330%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bec…56d0backed Yes55c63.68$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc389…ee0cbacked Yes31c61.13$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d8d…c69ebacked Yes58c60.38$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No56c57.22$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.2219133%63 W · 128 L+0.5wins0.00per pick33cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes70c56$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.946639.4%26 W · 40 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xab07…e6f1backed Yes67c50$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a59…b234backed Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20650%3 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+202.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0931…8636backed Yes69c50$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.550%0 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc24f…1acdbacked Yes55c49.61$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.291030%3 W · 7 L-2.3wins-0.23per pick53cpaid-42.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes41c47.03$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2619240.6%78 W · 114 L-20.3wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-36.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes24c42.86$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2348414%68 W · 416 L-39.3wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes42c40$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.85042%21 W · 29 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-30.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbdd0…550abacked Yes48c40$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b66…803cbacked Yes74c37.97$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.09250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid+21.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9855…ac9bbacked Yes48c35.64$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.9wins-0.25per pick41cpaid-67.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x79ae…b9ffbacked Yes60c26.41$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.76633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-40%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed No49c23$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.641656.3%9 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.14per pick42cpaid-8.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes56c22$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3236538.1%139 W · 226 L-19.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf933…52fbbacked Yes52c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.412240.2%49 W · 73 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed Yes69c15.1$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.352250%11 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.