Movies · resolved market
Will "Freakier Friday" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $29m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ec49c1d1607ca3ff978061d5d13f15dcb33095f2131554e956d4145d2c5f5bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $196,357
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $201,966
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $196,357 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed No | 6c | 31,256$1,751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,751.08 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…4447backed Yes | 69c | 16,065$11,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,965.85 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 44c | 15,047$6,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,466.5 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x955c…990fbacked Yes | 76c | 9,100$6,933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,166.5 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9804…6896backed Yes | 45c | 7,000$3,172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,827.44 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +88.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x241a…28d6backed No | 7c | 6,719$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.41 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 4c | 6,500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.35 | 84 | 22.6%19 W · 65 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked No | 3c | 6,130$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.8 | 121 | 4.1%5 W · 116 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -85%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa575…08b0backed No | 24c | 5,205$1,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,225 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 15cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5115…b61dbacked No | 8c | 4,500$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.96 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c5…b081backed No | 66c | 4,439$2,914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,913.89 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed No | 1c | 4,029$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.19 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x520d…babebacked Yes | 70c | 3,588$2,494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,093.85 | 113 | 52.2%59 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb10b…ec5ebacked Yes | 54c | 3,520$1,883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,636.5 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -58%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 70c | 3,000$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900.21 | 166 | 24.1%40 W · 126 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 28c | 2,653$752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,900.56 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe7…324dbacked Yes | 46c | 2,386$1,104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,282.11 | 89 | 30.3%27 W · 62 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…ebe8backed No | 3c | 2,147$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.12 | 72 | 6.9%5 W · 67 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes | 36c | 1,962$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,256.35 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4986…8bc9backed Yes | 61c | 1,491$908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.7 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 38c | 1,468$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$907.44 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 50c | 1,239$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.09 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 34c | 1,149$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$757.66 | 59 | 11.9%7 W · 52 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc178…35b3backed Yes | 53c | 1,128$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.03 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +136.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8933…1495backed Yes | 42c | 1,060$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.89 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ce…9811backed Yes | 27c | 999.99$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa52f…0425backed No | 65c | 991.31$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 62c | 873.86$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.5 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8f…3c8abacked No | 65c | 871.77$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96da…68b6backed No | 7c | 800$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 6cpaid | +367.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfae3…5228backed No | 22c | 773.09$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.08 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcefc…a993backed Yes | 72c | 739.53$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.18 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06bc…2887backed No | 2c | 731.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +168.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…c527backed No | 8c | 723.55$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6f…7e67backed No | 60c | 722.3$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.97 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb933…fb0abacked Yes | 56c | 704.14$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.42 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes | 45c | 700$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386 | 103 | 31.1%32 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0243…874ebacked Yes | 77c | 645.49$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a11…6df2backed Yes | 38c | 585$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.93 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06d0…059abacked Yes | 68c | 500$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 65c | 463.61$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.47 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x614e…4f1bbacked No | 29c | 451.76$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.01 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…d8ccbacked Yes | 28c | 407$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.64 | 160 | 40%64 W · 96 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…bdfbbacked No | 62c | 392.58$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.15 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc745…b952backed No | 27c | 386.72$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.36 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed No | 57c | 370.64$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.95 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.8wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…4b91backed Yes | 31c | 360.91$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.31 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -73%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad4a…ddb8backed No | 59c | 350$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.5 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed No | 67c | 248$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.14 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecb…aa7dbacked No | 34c | 239.41$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.2 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecef…b593backed Yes | 54c | 226$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.96 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed No | 11c | 216.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 166 | 14.5%24 W · 142 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1901…26a5backed Yes | 33c | 190$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +162%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 35c | 181$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.15 | 170 | 17.1%29 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 34c | 156.9$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.52 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…ca01backed Yes | 44c | 156$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.06 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -58%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…ef07backed Yes | 71c | 152.27$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed Yes | 49c | 150$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -5.8wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…3a9bbacked No | 46c | 150$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.43 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 58c | 131.4$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.98 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03c8…0e01backed No | 10c | 127.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ee…373ebacked No | 33c | 126.33$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.69 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -73%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed No | 22c | 124.46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58ca…cc33backed No | 42c | 120$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 55c | 117.47$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 63c | 114.85$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.01 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 35c | 111$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.15 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…981ebacked Yes | 46c | 110$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.17per pick | 30cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6395…6735backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…52fbbacked Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 122 | 40.2%49 W · 73 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd7…5a31backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked No | 48c | 78.79$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e67…2b1fbacked Yes | 64c | 75.47$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…75edbacked Yes | 38c | 66.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.35 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +99.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed No | 77c | 64$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac1f…da0bbacked Yes | 39c | 63.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.66 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd0…550abacked Yes | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.27 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…3b2fbacked No | 73c | 54.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 62c | 43.84$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed No | 61c | 40.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 34c | 32.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a01…6397backed Yes | 64c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbc…4f9dbacked No | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 62c | 21.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc687…7ddabacked Yes | 65c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…f711backed Yes | 62c | 18.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x304e…a5e9backed Yes | 62c | 18.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Freakier Friday" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $29m?this page
- Will "Freakier Friday" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $29m and $34m?No won
- Will "Freakier Friday" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $34m and $39m?No won
- Will "Freakier Friday" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $39m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.