TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Freakier Friday" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $29m?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$196,357
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$201,966

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $196,357 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ffb…a834backed No6c31,256$1,751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,751.086132.8%20 W · 41 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53a4…4447backed Yes69c16,065$11,099 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,965.8512451.6%64 W · 60 L+10.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes44c15,047$6,580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,466.532739.1%128 W · 199 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x955c…990fbacked Yes76c9,100$6,933 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,166.57157.7%41 W · 30 L+5.2wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+29.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9804…6896backed Yes45c7,000$3,172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,827.442445.8%11 W · 13 L+2.9wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+88.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x241a…28d6backed No7c6,719$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.4140%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed No4c6,500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.358422.6%19 W · 65 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-30.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9739…159fbacked No3c6,130$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.81214.1%5 W · 116 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-85%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa575…08b0backed No24c5,205$1,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,225540%2 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.25per pick15cpaid+66.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5115…b61dbacked No8c4,500$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.96128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-89.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37c5…b081backed No66c4,439$2,914 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,913.899441.5%39 W · 55 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x682d…4cd6backed No1c4,029$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.1932814.9%49 W · 279 L+14.2wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-59.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x520d…babebacked Yes70c3,588$2,494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,093.8511352.2%59 W · 54 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb10b…ec5ebacked Yes54c3,520$1,883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,636.53716.2%6 W · 31 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-58%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes70c3,000$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$900.2116624.1%40 W · 126 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes28c2,653$752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,900.5616350.3%82 W · 81 L+24.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+23.5%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xdfe7…324dbacked Yes46c2,386$1,104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,282.118930.3%27 W · 62 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-16.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x179e…ebe8backed No3c2,147$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.12726.9%5 W · 67 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-39.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes36c1,962$705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,256.3515059.3%89 W · 61 L+19.8wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+24.6%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x4986…8bc9backed Yes61c1,491$908 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$582.72552%13 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-19.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes38c1,468$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$907.4418719.3%36 W · 151 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-55.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes50c1,239$618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$621.0950633.4%169 W · 337 L-30.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes34c1,149$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$757.665911.9%7 W · 52 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-78.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc178…35b3backed Yes53c1,128$599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$529.035100%5 W · 0 L+2.6wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+136.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8933…1495backed Yes42c1,060$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$615.891650%8 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-13.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9ce…9811backed Yes27c999.99$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7304250%21 W · 21 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-28%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa52f…0425backed No65c991.31$647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$646.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed No62c873.86$539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.520049.5%99 W · 101 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d8f…3c8abacked No65c871.77$563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5632653.8%14 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96da…68b6backed No7c800$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.19per pick6cpaid+367.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfae3…5228backed No22c773.09$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.083925.6%10 W · 29 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick30cpaid+23.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcefc…a993backed Yes72c739.53$529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.182556%14 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06bc…2887backed No2c731.58$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick8cpaid+168.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5df7…c527backed No8c723.55$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa6f…7e67backed No60c722.3$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.971346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid+35.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb933…fb0abacked Yes56c704.14$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.422941.4%12 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-29.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes45c700$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38610331.1%32 W · 71 L+0.5wins0.00per pick31cpaid-31.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0243…874ebacked Yes77c645.49$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.49333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-56.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a11…6df2backed Yes38c585$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.932433.3%8 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-36.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06d0…059abacked Yes68c500$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-26.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes65c463.61$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.4767232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x614e…4f1bbacked No29c451.76$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.01650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+61.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8247…d8ccbacked Yes28c407$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.6416040%64 W · 96 L+8.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-19.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe648…bdfbbacked No62c392.58$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.158130.9%25 W · 56 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-29.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc745…b952backed No27c386.72$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.362729.6%8 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick30cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2880…fa70backed No57c370.64$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.952330.4%7 W · 16 L-4.8wins-0.21per pick51cpaid-43.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x65bf…4b91backed Yes31c360.91$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.311711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-73%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad4a…ddb8backed No59c350$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.51323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.8wins-0.21per pick44cpaid-63.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9afd…3028backed No67c248$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.141233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-47.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ecb…aa7dbacked No34c239.41$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.24131.7%13 W · 28 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-40.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecef…b593backed Yes54c226$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.961127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-53.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32f4…c885backed No11c216.68$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8816614.5%24 W · 142 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1901…26a5backed Yes33c190$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.32100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+162%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4041…6f52backed Yes35c181$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.1517017.1%29 W · 141 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes34c156.9$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.5248414%68 W · 416 L-39.3wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4bee…ca01backed Yes44c156$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.062321.7%5 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-58%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x682c…ef07backed Yes71c152.27$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed Yes49c150$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.54134.1%14 W · 27 L-5.8wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x283b…3a9bbacked No46c150$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.436426.6%17 W · 47 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-49.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No58c131.4$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.9819133%63 W · 128 L+0.5wins0.00per pick33cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03c8…0e01backed No10c127.49$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.152010%2 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-49.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3ee…373ebacked No33c126.33$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.691414.3%2 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.15per pick29cpaid-73%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb8a9…2948backed No22c124.46$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2314425.7%37 W · 107 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick22cpaid-15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x58ca…cc33backed No42c120$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.82157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+21%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes55c117.47$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.84337.2%16 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid+42.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes63c114.85$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.0136538.1%139 W · 226 L-19.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes35c111$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.151711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-74.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e16…981ebacked Yes46c110$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.52147.6%10 W · 11 L+3.7wins+0.17per pick30cpaid+43.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6395…6735backed Yes52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482556%14 W · 11 L+2.9wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+6.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf933…52fbbacked Yes49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5112240.2%49 W · 73 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4fd7…5a31backed Yes65c100$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b24…01abbacked No48c78.79$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389851%50 W · 48 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e67…2b1fbacked Yes64c75.47$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.045952.5%31 W · 28 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca1e…75edbacked Yes38c66.16$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.354344.2%19 W · 24 L+5.0wins+0.12per pick33cpaid+99.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9e49…63f2backed No77c64$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac1f…da0bbacked Yes39c63.66$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.66825%2 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-29.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdd0…550abacked Yes53c60$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.271353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa66f…3b2fbacked No73c54.79$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2843…b3d2backed Yes62c43.84$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.611241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-38.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x912a…0f92backed No61c40.63$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.933713.5%5 W · 32 L-3.2wins-0.09per pick22cpaid-64.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No34c32.78$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.31,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a01…6397backed Yes64c28$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.114553.3%24 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2fbc…4f9dbacked No62c25$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.61118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.17per pick35cpaid-69.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa314…5ba7backed No62c21.73$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.475145.1%23 W · 28 L-4.3wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-17.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc687…7ddabacked Yes65c19$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.65250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f9…f711backed Yes62c18.76$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.132100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x304e…a5e9backed Yes62c18.27$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.94450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.