Movies · resolved market
Will "The Naked Gun" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $17m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65724b11967922c874691cfa23a03f3a4623126fcd162c609e19cfadeb2b3647
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $109,505
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $108,797
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $109,505 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe8ff…c93bbacked Yes | 73c | 10,000$7,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,700 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +101.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed No | 47c | 9,173$4,289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,289.28 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9804…6896backed Yes | 46c | 8,743$4,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,701.89 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +88.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed No | 44c | 5,251$2,312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,312.02 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x89d7…3fabbacked Yes | 73c | 5,115$3,732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,382.5 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…0581backed No | 3c | 4,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 3cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x520d…babebacked Yes | 58c | 2,941$1,720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,221.17 | 113 | 52.2%59 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 71c | 2,506$1,784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$721.71 | 166 | 24.1%40 W · 126 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…4b91backed Yes | 75c | 1,635$1,226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.37 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -73%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26ff…8ed7backed No | 75c | 1,336$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked No | 1c | 1,312$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 121 | 4.1%5 W · 116 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -85%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4986…8bc9backed Yes | 64c | 1,132$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.88 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Yes | 76c | 1,127$851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.81 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 25c | 1,076$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.91 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…4447backed Yes | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes | 32c | 999.99$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678 | 103 | 31.1%32 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 25c | 936.86$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700.38 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 24c | 888$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.32 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +6.5wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa575…08b0backed Yes | 24c | 826.79$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$628.36 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 15cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 60c | 722.53$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.15 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 13c | 712.32$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.6 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8f…3c8abacked Yes | 70c | 710.76$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.76 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…d8ccbacked Yes | 43c | 698.64$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.09 | 160 | 40%64 W · 96 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x825e…904fbacked No | 57c | 695.79$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.03 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6f…7e67backed No | 55c | 622.81$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.33 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc745…b952backed Yes | 30c | 537.64$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.34 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked Yes | 63c | 500$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe7…324dbacked Yes | 30c | 446.78$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.78 | 89 | 30.3%27 W · 62 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5941…df44backed Yes | 46c | 440.64$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 39c | 414.93$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.79 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a01…6397backed No | 77c | 400$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff77…4b76backed No | 71c | 388.01$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…52fbbacked Yes | 60c | 380$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.2 | 122 | 40.2%49 W · 73 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c3…1f5fbacked No | 71c | 350$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.27 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Yes | 34c | 325.13$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.81 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e0e…fdb4backed Yes | 64c | 313.58$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.58 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e67…2b1fbacked No | 64c | 310.12$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.47 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…3a9bbacked No | 35c | 306.13$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.3 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 46c | 301.62$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.85 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…bdfbbacked Yes | 56c | 294.02$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.2 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed No | 44c | 287.69$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.99 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd7…0e39backed Yes | 77c | 259.54$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 34c | 254.94$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.46 | 170 | 17.1%29 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked No | 61c | 240$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.2 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95c8…f511backed No | 62c | 233.46$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.74 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 46c | 232.68$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.56 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…4275backed No | 29c | 232.14$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -30%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…0ebabacked Yes | 33c | 227.11$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.11 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed No | 36c | 220$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.2 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 34c | 202.72$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.72 | 166 | 14.5%24 W · 142 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…6c04backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 37c | 199.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 187.64$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.84 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bc…33c6backed No | 74c | 180$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 74cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 32c | 169.92$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.44 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked No | 65c | 155$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.77 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd87c…8c12backed No | 75c | 154.84$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…f41cbacked Yes | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 63cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed Yes | 76c | 146$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.48 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 68cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfae3…5228backed No | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e61…a88abacked Yes | 76c | 131.17$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 63c | 118.68$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.94 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 49c | 116.69$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.67 | 198 | 36.4%72 W · 126 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb5e…af8dbacked No | 67c | 104.23$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.65 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x111b…bad9backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db9…d97cbacked Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d33…5a2ebacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec41…1134backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfde…4006backed Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a1…0ee9backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6124…181abacked No | 29c | 97.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9d…69fbbacked Yes | 33c | 90.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed Yes | 49c | 90$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 59 | 20.3%12 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3688…a354backed No | 46c | 90$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked No | 27c | 85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26df…f747backed No | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x053e…6422backed Yes | 38c | 79.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.85 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa976…5c43backed No | 54c | 79.31$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 32c | 77.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb933…fb0abacked Yes | 41c | 76.08$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.89 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…68a4backed No | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 70cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dec…f907backed No | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 73c | 75.16$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…b234backed Yes | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.53 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +202.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc003…f6aabacked No | 43c | 70.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 28c | 69.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc654…f0debacked No | 69c | 57.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.72 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.5wins | +0.24per pick | 45cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x26c6…ea7ebacked Yes | 57c | 57.15$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c9…c6d9backed Yes | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc047…fecbbacked No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f67…55bfbacked Yes | 70c | 49.9$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f68…94b6backed Yes | 23c | 48.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.82 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 12cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…75edbacked Yes | 63c | 47.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +99.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd57…694dbacked Yes | 63c | 44.29$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 31cpaid | +174.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed95…b1e6backed No | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e87…ef0dbacked No | 62c | 40.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…d56fbacked Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…cbcdbacked No | 61c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Naked Gun" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $17m?this page
- Will "The Naked Gun" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $17m and $20m?No won
- Will "The Naked Gun" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $20m and $23m?No won
- Will "The Naked Gun" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $23m and $26m?No won
- Will "The Naked Gun" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $26m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.