Movies · resolved market
Will "The Naked Gun" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $26m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b84cbadaf324c733c3ebef7a6e4c530b205ef95750f69ead42b1f9f0f0077db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,309
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,200
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,309 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 8c | 15,161$1,265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,264.66 | 166 | 24.1%40 W · 126 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bff…85bebacked Yes | 1c | 6,747$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 2,841$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 142 | 12%17 W · 125 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa976…5c43backed Yes | 1c | 2,241$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed95…b1e6backed Yes | 7c | 1,674$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.57 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 5c | 1,332$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.88 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa55c…cae9backed Yes | 2c | 1,044$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 5c | 1,031$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.31 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x917d…601abacked Yes | 8c | 990$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.4 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc923…7154backed Yes | 4c | 726.68$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f21…6162backed Yes | 8c | 241.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcec6…0b1abacked Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 8c | 168.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 9c | 159.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 162 | 37.7%61 W · 101 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Naked Gun" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $26m?this page
- Will "The Naked Gun" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $17m and $20m?No won
- Will "The Naked Gun" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $20m and $23m?No won
- Will "The Naked Gun" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $23m and $26m?No won
- Will "The Naked Gun" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $17m?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.