Movies · resolved market
Will "The Naked Gun" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $20m and $23m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xddd7bcd49d8f29ddab2c54fc5b5fda2b755be41e4f2c1675c97b985dafd88c7a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $91,245
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,566
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,245 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 1c | 13,435$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.89 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 19c | 10,000$1,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,899.82 | 166 | 24.1%40 W · 126 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 18c | 5,766$1,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,016.91 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa976…5c43backed Yes | 1c | 5,624$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.23 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bff…85bebacked Yes | 0c | 5,311$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 7c | 4,020$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.87 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 0c | 2,544$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 142 | 12%17 W · 125 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa55c…cae9backed Yes | 1c | 2,090$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89d7…3fabbacked Yes | 25c | 1,983$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.72 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed95…b1e6backed Yes | 16c | 1,016$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.93 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.05 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes | 9c | 793.27$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.18 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd0…3a52backed Yes | 7c | 751.73$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb10b…ec5ebacked Yes | 19c | 522.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -58%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 9c | 359.41$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.78 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 9c | 353.85$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 129 | 23.3%30 W · 99 L | -7.3wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e81…b4dbbacked Yes | 5c | 326.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 9c | 306.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 9c | 303.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 275$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3688…a354backed Yes | 11c | 250$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…6c04backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…981ebacked Yes | 11c | 179.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.17per pick | 30cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 162 | 37.7%61 W · 101 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 59 | 20.3%12 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed Yes | 21c | 99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 42 | 4.8%2 W · 40 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x26c6…ea7ebacked Yes | 25c | 62.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x079c…5a65backed No | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Naked Gun" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $20m and $23m?this page
- Will "The Naked Gun" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $17m and $20m?No won
- Will "The Naked Gun" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $23m and $26m?No won
- Will "The Naked Gun" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $17m?Yes won
- Will "The Naked Gun" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $26m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.