Ukraine · resolved market
India agrees to reduce purchases Russian oil by August 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40bef958d038a7056ee2829d363227c1b016df6a5e82bbf79d976f34fa51d2e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,731
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,186
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,731 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 7c | 7,166$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.89 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 74c | 4,500$3,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,150 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 10c | 3,081$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.54 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 13c | 2,464$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.55 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…9e88backed Yes | 25c | 2,290$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -82%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,643$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 1,600$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 139 | 10.8%15 W · 124 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0dc…3944backed Yes | 26c | 1,200$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.66 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea0…9928backed No | 73c | 1,189$873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.84 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 13c | 1,019$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.13 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b9…6048backed Yes | 7c | 922$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.88 | 141 | 50.4%71 W · 70 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 26c | 920.1$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.23 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 15c | 900.1$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.02 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 21c | 871.92$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.3 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 2c | 605.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed No | 76c | 536.91$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.18 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 6c | 523.45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 56 | 5.4%3 W · 53 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff1…72ebbacked Yes | 27c | 522.03$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb46…f68bbacked Yes | 22c | 504.6$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 27c | 500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 3c | 440.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 439.57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 17c | 342$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x62d5…78d1backed No | 78c | 321.55$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.55 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb36c…8715backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x176a…a140backed Yes | 35c | 286.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 74c | 270.27$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.27 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2800…1e5dbacked Yes | 24c | 250$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed95…b1e6backed Yes | 24c | 248.6$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.32 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe921…1ae4backed Yes | 5c | 196.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe03d…189abacked No | 76c | 196.87$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.25 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x765b…1a00backed No | 72c | 193.05$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf950…81d1backed Yes | 26c | 165$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed Yes | 28c | 160.71$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed No | 76c | 150$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64e7…fc5bbacked No | 72c | 149.99$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed Yes | 19c | 133.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6f…7e67backed No | 79c | 130.75$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.58 | 54 | 79.6%43 W · 11 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…d61cbacked No | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…43a5backed Yes | 27c | 121.31$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.75 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf92c…60e7backed Yes | 25c | 110$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8810…0e4dbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +30%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.73 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3868…6ba8backed Yes | 23c | 98.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -55%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3336…cb5fbacked No | 77c | 97.4$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…9c60backed Yes | 24c | 94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21a4…0b9ebacked No | 77c | 90.91$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 76cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ae…61edbacked Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2def…651dbacked Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f0…f19fbacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x253e…bf81backed Yes | 28c | 72.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 72c | 70.27$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 214 | 26.2%56 W · 158 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2de9…ac14backed Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b96…bed2backed No | 80c | 68.86$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…51acbacked No | 75c | 67.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 69 | 71%49 W · 20 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a6…3133backed No | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3d…498abacked Yes | 26c | 53.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0754…4955backed Yes | 25c | 52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cde…67d0backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeacd…8143backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5437…7e5abacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8d…aebfbacked Yes | 22c | 49.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Yes | 28c | 49.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…56eebacked No | 75c | 48.37$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f0…a149backed No | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 69c | 34.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 171 | 22.2%38 W · 133 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b75…b1a8backed No | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c14…08a5backed Yes | 50c | 30.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e0…2225backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x557a…413abacked No | 74c | 23.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x555e…1487backed No | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 87 | 33.3%29 W · 58 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed No | 74c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4be…c4c1backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.