Middle East · resolved market
Another Israel military action on Yemen before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3fec80a0b983074e82661eaabfead512b48ad4e002535167918c8a27e640b34
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,784
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,320
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,784 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed No | 0c | 10,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 0c | 3,719$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 75c | 2,606$1,947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658.53 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked No | 28c | 2,016$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.97 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed95…b1e6backed No | 23c | 1,450$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.14 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8334…4e9fbacked No | 2c | 876$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa020…d807backed No | 9c | 715$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.35 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…338abacked Yes | 77c | 651.94$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.11 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x717e…6498backed Yes | 74c | 520$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.19 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52ca…f294backed No | 21c | 485.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 24c | 416.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.79 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 40c | 387.26$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.86 | 121 | 38.8%47 W · 74 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…a71dbacked No | 57c | 310.83$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.89 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +5.0wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x664d…aa7dbacked No | 17c | 299.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 78c | 251.37$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.94 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 78c | 250$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 16c | 248.83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.23 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 62c | 228.29$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.92 | 153 | 24.8%38 W · 115 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 76c | 225.99$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.48 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 80c | 224$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.01 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe277…8e46backed No | 17c | 200.57$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa51b…26b1backed Yes | 73c | 200$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fa…2bd4backed Yes | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 56cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9e…547dbacked Yes | 76c | 199.99$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 21c | 159.52$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.71 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked Yes | 66c | 158.22$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.14 | 48 | 83.3%40 W · 8 L | +6.5wins | +0.14per pick | 70cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5858…7b42backed Yes | 74c | 158.02$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.86 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c6…9678backed No | 9c | 152.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed No | 10c | 149.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x350e…6539backed Yes | 78c | 128.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.87 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 65c | 118.87$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.36 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…a4a0backed No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x312b…cafebacked No | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…bccebacked No | 22c | 74.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4600…78aabacked No | 27c | 72.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 17c | 62.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 266 | 16.5%44 W · 222 L | -24.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x286e…3365backed No | 35c | 57.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.17per pick | 36cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd08e…2f7cbacked No | 30c | 57.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 179 | 29.1%52 W · 127 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 23c | 53.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…b071backed No | 41c | 50.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +17%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…75edbacked Yes | 76c | 42.27$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed No | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4947…d6fabacked Yes | 71c | 31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab0…1c9cbacked Yes | 69c | 20.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x489a…c632backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a00…ed53backed Yes | 77c | 13.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.